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Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Rental Housing Market in the Russian Federation

Student: Oleg Sablenkov

Supervisor: Konstantin Kholodilin

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The paper is devoted to the search for an accurate method for determining the final reversal points during stock market crashes. Analyze also covers the current crisis of 2020 caused by the Covid-19 epidemic. The possibility of determining the most likely future market movements is a controversial issue. However, if such methods exist, they are extremely valuable. The study assumes that there are periods when the market becomes somewhat predictable due to psychology of participants, and the market crash is one of them. The system for determining the lowest reversal points, or market bottoms, is based on applying technical analysis to the us S&P 500 stock index. It consists of a two-level filter of potential reversal zones and a confirmation buy signal. It uses indicators such as VIX, MACD, RSI, Coppock Curve, Put/Call ratio Equity and Price Momentum Oscillator, some of which are applied in a non-standard way. The paper also provides a General analysis of the largest market crashes and the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. As a result of testing the system, the reversal points of the last two crises were determined with accuracy to the day. For the crisis of 2000, all three reversal points of intermediate falls were found, but the last one was too weak to make a signal, as in the case of 1987. For four other collapses from 1961 to 1981, it was not possible to apply the system in its current form due to a lack of data on VIX, which caused signals to lag. However, all four reversal points were determined with a delay of a few days.

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