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Empirical Analysis of the Financial Fragility Hypothesis on the Example of France

Student: Kseniia Mindubaeva

Supervisor: Ivan V. Rozmainsky

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The economic crisis, which is always characterized by a sharp and significant drop in production activity and employment levels, can for a long time have negative consequences for developed and developing countries. Therefore, it is quite natural that a crisis is often in the focus of attention of the international community, scientists, company owners, economists and politicians. Especially this topic has increased its popularity after the mortgage crisis of the beginning of the 21st century, which began in 2007 in the United States and spread throughout the world. In addition to the global crisis of 2008, the European crisis could be affected by the crisis of 2003, as well as the crisis of sovereign debt. We investigated GFN using French data using the hypothesis of the American scientist H. Minsky. The behavior of the French economy from 1998 to 2018 was studied at 208 private sector enterprises, and the situation on the market of small, medium and large businesses was analyzed. Using the hypothesis of H. Minsky, we also studied the situation of ten sectors of the French economy for instability, in addition, we compared the obtained values ​​with the leverage ratio. It is shown that the French economy as a whole is stable, but there are a number of financially fragile sectors in the market at the height of which the number of speculative and Ponzi firms increased

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