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Evaluation of Alcohol Consumption Regulation Measures Effectiveness in Russia

Student: Aleksandr Bakharev

Supervisor: Leonid Yasnitsky

Faculty: Faculty of Economics, Management, and Business Informatics

Educational Programme: Information Analytics in Enterprise Management (Master)

Final Grade: 7

Year of Graduation: 2020

This study examines the effectiveness of public policy in shaping the demand for alcohol. In particular, excise taxes, a ban on the sale of alcohol at night and on holidays were examined. Based on the data obtained through questioning of 95 patients of the Regional Narcological Dispensary No. 3, machine learning algorithms were trained, among which the model with the smallest error was selected. The sample was supplemented in 2020 based on 26 observations using a survey in order to add variability to the regressors describing state restrictions. Filling in the missing observations of the dependent variable was carried out using the model with the lowest error, the neural network. After re-evaluating the models, the effectiveness of government measures to control alcohol demand was analyzed. The inefficiency of the measures was identified. The most significant parameters in the formation of alcoholism were variables of the level of stress, environmental friendliness. Accordingly, to solve the problem of alcoholism, it is necessary to take measures to increase the standard of living, since state restrictions do not have a significant effect on an individual who regularly consumes alcohol.

Full text (added May 23, 2020)

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