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Scenario-Strategic Analysis of External Environment for Determining Company's Strategy

Student: Galkina Anastasiya

Supervisor: Tatyana Podsypanina

Faculty: Graduate School of Business

Educational Programme: Business Strategies: Management and Consulting (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2020

Nowadays only a limited number of industries can be described as those where the external environment is not very dynamic, future trends are easy to be distinguished and they evolve and develop at a steady pace. Much more industries are characterized by being uncertain. This fact complicates analysis and increases the risk of making wrong strategic decisions. The cost of error may be too high, especially in capital-intensive and high-tech industries, where the project design and implementation require both time and resources. Therefore, companies are taking various steps to reduce uncertainty and determine which path possible future trends would follow. Scenario-strategic analysis is one of the main foresight tools for determining the future, and the space industry serves as an example of such an uncertain environment. Recommendations upon how to operate in this industry rationally and reasonably can be obtained by reducing the uncertainty of the external environment and establishing causal relationships between the tendencies of the present and their possible evolvement in the future. The TAIDA methodology (tracking-analyzing-imagining-deciding-acting) has been chosen as the central one in this work. Being widely applied, this methodology provides recommendations on how to use the results of analysis to create a vision, mission, strategy. In this work, the selected methodology is used to solve the problem of developing a strategy for a new mobile personal satellite operator as part of the Materik company (AFK Sistema) for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries. However, since the scenarios are created for the industry as a whole, it is possible to apply them for other companies’ activities in the space industry in the satellite segment.

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