Estimation of the Probability of Default of Russian Banks Using the SYMBOL Methodology

This work is devoted to modeling the probability of default using the SYMBOL methodology, as well as the analysis of factors affecting the probability of default of Russian banks. The purpose of the study is to build a model using SYMBOL, as well as to compare its quality with an alternative model that is more common on the Russian market. Thus, as a result of the study, the inapplicability at this stage and the time period of modeling the probability of default using SYMBOL was revealed. The model is much inferior to the more traditional model with the use of distance to default. The model requires refinement and adaptation to the realities of the Russian banking sector. This statement serves as the basis for further development and research in this direction. And in the case of successful adaptation, taking into account the fact that the constructed models are based on published financial statements, as well as public statistics, they can be used either directly by the Central Bank to identify weak players, or by the banks themselves to monitor their financial situation or analysis of counterparties to understand the situation in the industry.