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Modeling of Inflation Processes in Uzbekistan Based On the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Student: Sadykov Sardor

Supervisor: Andrei Dementiev

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Applied Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of various types of new Keynesian Phillips curves for modeling inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. In particular, the "standard" form of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, its modification for a small open economy, as well as the hybrid form of this curve, which along with the rational (forward-looking)) inflation expectations also take into account adaptive (forward-looking)) inflationary expectation. Based on the results of evaluating the new Keynesian Phillips curves, the degree of influence of upcoming inflation expectations and deviations of average marginal production costs from the equilibrium level on inflation in Uzbekistan were determined, additional macroeconomic factors of inflation were identified, the degree of relevance of backward-looking inflation expectations to inflation was calculated, and its comparison was made with the degree of influence on inflation ahead-looking inflation expectations. The results of the study can be applied to improve the effectiveness of the development and implementation of monetary policy in Uzbekistan within the framework of the inflation targeting regime. This research can also serve as a basis for further modeling of economic processes in the framework of the new Keynesian theory approach both in Uzbekistan and in other countries with economies in transition.

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