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Cash Flow Forecasting of Corporate Borrowers

Student: Baiguttieva Zhanyl

Supervisor: Alexey Morgunov

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Financial Markets and Financial Institutions (Master)

Final Grade: 7

Year of Graduation: 2020

This work is aimed at studying the future cash flows of corporate borrowers. The annual growth in revenue of Russian companies was considered as a forecast variable. The study included data on 411 small and medium-sized companies in the trading industry for the period from 2014 to 2018. Using the methods of regression analysis, positive statistically significant relationships were identified between revenue and financial indicators such as working capital, inventories, and coverage of interest payments. Also, decision trees were built for each of the trading sectors, the results of which were economically justified. The resulting models can be applied in the banking sector when assessing the solvency of borrowers

Full text (added May 25, 2020)

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