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Oil Price and Inflation in Algeria: Bayesian Approach

Student: Miloud Lacheheb

Supervisor: Valentina Kuskova

Faculty: International laboratory for Applied Network Research

Educational Programme: Applied Statistics with Network Analysis (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2020

This paper provides new evidence of oil price pass-through inflation in Algeria using Bayesian time-varying parameter and Impulse Response Function (IRF), and oil price forecasting during Coronavirus pandemic. Data were retrieved from World Bank Indicators for the period 1970-2016. Importantly, results reveal no evidence of time-varying impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation level. Similarly, IRF confirmed the findings of TVP approach, and the impact of oil price shocks on inflation revealed to be negligible. The oil price drop during the Coronavirus pandemic is predicted to remain as low as $40 a barrel.

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