Bypassing Russian Embargo via Belarus: Testing with Data

The purpose of the study conducted in this paper is to empirically confirm the existence of hidden re-exports through Belarus. There is scattered evidence that hidden re-exports arose from attempts to circumvent the counter-sanctions (food embargo) imposed by Russia in 2014. The analysis is performed using panel data on trade statistics for various commodity groups by comparing changes in two commodity flows: exports from the EU to Belarus and imports from Russia to Belarus. The hypothesis being tested is that in the case of re-exports, there should be positive correlation between Russian imports from Belarus and EU exports to Belarus. The main conclusion of this work is that the hypothesis was confirmed on different specifications, since a positive correlation between Russian imports from Belarus and EU exports to Belarus was found for sanctioned goods, but not for non-sanctioned goods, which confirms the existence of re-exports through Belarus.