Construction and Research of a Dynamic Covid-19 Model

The final qualifying work is devoted to the question of describing the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic using a mathematical model. The object of the study is a mathematical model of an infectious disease. The aim of the work is to obtain an assessment of the morbidity as a result of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemic in Russia. The paper proposes a dynamic model with a lag effect for predicting the dynamics of the current epidemiological situation, and also develops an algorithm for identifying parameters in the model in the Simulink environment. The developed mathematical model and algorithm are of interest not only from the point of view of epidemiology, but also mathematical modeling. In the future, it is planned to use the model to predict the spread of COVID-19 not only in Russia, but also in other countries (Germany, Italy, the United States), taking into account the available statistical data on cases for identifying parameters. To adjust the model for the purpose of qualitative forecasting of the future epidemiological situation, it is possible to introduce such new parameters into the model as the coefficient of the created immune response, taking into account the ongoing public health measures for vaccination of the population. The work contains 41 pages of machine text, 4 tables, 15 figures and 11 formulas. 30 sources were used for writing.