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The Mutual Influence of the Cryptocurrency Market and the World Precious Metals Market

ФИО студента: Nikolay Svistunov

Руководитель: Alexander Larionov

Кампус/факультет: Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs

Программа: World Economy (Bachelor)

Год защиты: 2021

This paper reveals the results of the impact of digitalization on the global monetary system. The emergence of new "synthetic commodity" money in the form of cryptocurrencies has expanded the horizons of standard economic theories. The analysis of quotations of the largest digital currencies and precious metals helps to find answers to these questions: is bitcoin a digital gold and can central regulators use it to diversify and hedge assets in the structure of gold and foreign exchange reserves? According to the results of econometric modeling, in the long term, there is no dependence between the dynamics of gold and bitcoin, however, if you focus on a shorter time period, there is a tendency for a joint change in quotations. First of all, this may be due to a new stage in the evolution of the cryptocurrency market, caused by a significant influx of institutional investors. Moreover, taking into account the current experience of some countries, in particular Venezuela and Barbados, it can be concluded that holding a small amount (~ 0.01%) of currency on the blockchain in the structure of gold reserves makes it possible to ensure not only a high level of risk diversification due to low correlation with currency pairs, but also to increase the total return of the portfolio.

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