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The Implementation and Scenario Analysis of the Simulation Model WORLD3

Student: Loginova Anastasiya

Supervisor: Timofey Shevgunov

Faculty: Graduate School of Business

Educational Programme: Business Informatics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2021

Nowadays, we are all focused on growth and development in all areas of life. People seek to expand their influence on the planet through technological and scientific progress, often forgetting about the environmental and economic consequences. Many scientists argue that there is a limit to growth. After the transition of the peak point, a decline should follow and this will lead to disastrous consequences. Researchers say that people should reconsider their attitude to the use of natural resources. Otherwise, the planet is threatened with overpopulation, complete depletion of natural resources, global warming, and several other disasters. The book "Limits of Growth" describes in detail the simulation model WORLD3, describing the most likely scenarios for the development and future existence of mankind. In addition, the book describes the possible consequences of the irrational behavior of people on the planet and their ways. The purpose of my research is to study the principles of the WORLD3 model, as well as to analyze the relevance of forecasts almost 50 years after the creation of the first model.

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