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Estimation of Excess Mortality due to COVID19 Pandemic: Methodological Issues and Empirical Results

Student: Colgecen Ali

Supervisor: Sergey Timonin

Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences

Educational Programme: Population and Development (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2021

Objective: Estimating the direct and indirect mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in 29 countries with age and sex disaggregated week-specific mortality data Design: Study of number of deaths and death rates of 29 countries Setting: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Participants: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2015-20, disaggregated by week, age and sex. Officially reported COVID-19 deaths data from Johns Hopkins University. Main outcome measures: Weekly excess deaths, crude and standardised death rates (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by averaging and linear regression model based on 2015-2019) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years). Results: Total of 836,745 to 1,015,729 all-causes excess deaths in 2020 are estimated in study countries. The United States (438,558-559,159), Italy (97,073-99,615), Spain (71,984-74,638), Poland (57,864-73,324) and France (45,912-61,209) are at the top of the list. At the end of the list are New Zealand (-2,217 to -176), Denmark (-746 to 816) and Norway (-222 to -89). In terms of death rates, Bulgaria (Crude: 1,207-1,298, Standardised: 1,524-1,687) and Lithuania (Crude: 685-920, Standardised: 732-1,462) have the most dire estimates. These countries are followed by Italy in crude rate (Crude: 871-896, Standardised: 635-915), Poland in standardised rate (Crude: 788-1,003, Standardised: 1,294-1,454). New Zealand (Crude: -213 to -179, Standardised: -402 to -301), Denmark (Crude: -42 to 17, Standardised: -246 to -89) and Norway (Crude: -89 to 0, Standardised: - 319 to 2) keep their place at the end of the list. Conclusion: Approximately one million deaths were estimated by averaging and linear regression model whereas only 681,748 were officially reported. There is a very strong correlation between findings of the study and officially reported figures. Male mortality is significantly higher than female mortality. New Zealand, Denmark and Norway consistently marked negative excess mortality estimates, which might have been caused by removal of external factors mortality thanks to lockdown measures.

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