Analysis of Long-term Trends in the Consumption of Ferrous Metals in the Economies of Countries With Different Levels of Development

This study is dedicated to examining the factors influencing metal consumption in countries with different levels of economic development. The authors highlight the difference in the nature of steel consumption between developed and developing economies: in developing countries, steel consumption is growing, while the growth of steel consumption in developed economies remains constant. In the context of reduced demand for steel during the coronavirus pandemic, which exacerbated the issue of excess industry capacity, the question arises about the prospects for developing new markets for steel products. Using panel regression methods, the authors demonstrate that the demand for steel is nonlinearly related to income levels in the economy: the higher the per capita income, the lower the income elasticity of steel demand (GDP). The models also show a significant influence of urbanization levels and industrial production volume on steel consumption, indicating prospects for increasing the demand for steel products in countries with a growing urban population while transitioning from an agricultural to an industrial economy.