Business forecast: how to succeed in the post-crisis economy
Such a sudden and severe crisis as we have now can not only reset the economic activity to zero, but also offer many opportunities in the future. It is important to predict the trends, but this is not always easy. The World is changing very fast and it means not only losses, but also great opportunities for those who can fulfill their ideas in time and respond to consumer needs. An expert and a businessman talk about their positive experience from the sanctions, the regeneration of hippy culture, and how private investments can save the Russian economy.
Udara Peiris, ICEF Associate Professor
Ownership is in trend again. The crisis has challenged the model of sharing-economy. People will prefer to own cars, flats, enterprises, country houses, rather than rent them. During times of change, it is more comfortable for people to own things. For example, no one will force you out of a rented flat because the owner has decided to sell it in the hard times.
Produce, sell and eat local food. In the time of crisis, consumers switch to local goods with a shorter consumption cycle. Micro logistics services will gain traction as well. Domestic enterprises will develop their production processes. National production will be an attractive investment, it will force the country to regulate the rules of cooperation in the new conditions.
There will be a lot of work for freelancers. The employment market will reevaluate the trend of the “gig economy”. The number of the outsourced and out-of-the-office workers will grow. These are couriers, taxi drivers, service workers, freelancers. On the one hand, it will give an opportunity to find a job even in hard times; on the other hand, the employees will be less protected.
We were toughened up in the sanctions. Since 2014 local brands have been placed on the supermarket shelves. Now it’s time of a large increase of local products in different spheres.
Alexey Karanuk, HSE alumni, the founder of Jeffrey’s Coffee chain and consulting company Finmodel.bz
Small business will skim the cream in half a year. There will be new opportunities for those who have a financial cushion to survive in hard times. Competition will go down, and there will be more choice in places to rent. Those who survived will be able to raise prices, so not only will earnings go up, but also the margins. There will be also an opportunity to make money from grocery discounters, when people can’t afford to order a meal.
It would be reasonable to invest in the real sector. There will be an opportunity to catch up with well-tried and implemented business ideas and different actionable business-models, when their creators didn’t have time to prepare for the crisis and need investors now. The investors in their turn need to place money somewhere. We will face monetization of new demands and need to fill the gaps in the economy.
Growth in the sphere of legal services. Companies will need to organize lay-offs painlessly and honestly. They also need to optimize expenses for the staff, and this will be accompanied by counter-claims. In particular, it is important to comply with a plenty of claims against “Aeroflot” for their nonpayment of the unused tickets. Moreover, it is a chance for the legal tech industry to stablise.
Isolation has created new demands. Delivery services, telemedicine, online communication, the means to maintain a healthy lifestyle at home, online entertainments – they are all at the height of consumers’ demand. The business which helps to increase online sales and different logistic projects have got a boost now.
The hippie movement will come alive again. A great number of innovations in the sphere of control over people, the loss of freedom which is for us and for Europeans a core value – all this will give rise to movements resisting digital control. Partisan technologies and a lot of data protection developments will appear. They will provide for freedom of expression, movement and travel and the right for one’s own values.
Assistant Professor