Russia requires 4% economic growth over 5-6 years
The economic slump of 2013 was not a surprise for Russia, former Minister of Economics and current scientific expert of the Higher School of Economics Yevgeny Yasin wrote in his article published by Rossiiskaya Gazeta. "Many people would call 2013 a year of missed opportunities. This is not true. There were no opportunities! Thus, there was nothing to miss."
"For quite a time, from 2003 through to 2008, the high economic growth was based on the quick growth of oil prices. To a great extent, we have exhausted those opportunities, which were on the surface. However, we did not use more important factors, which require reformation of institutions, bigger business activities, protection of property rights and improvement of businesses' trust to the state and the society's trust to businesses," Yasin wrote.
In his opinion, economic growth of 1.5% to 2% will remain in 2014. "No doubt, we require higher rates, which, in fact, is realistic annual growth of 4% over five-six years."
"If we managed to have the growth of the rate, it would mean the country is developing ahead of main partners and competitors (their economies would not grow by more than two percent)," the economist said. This scenario could mean our modernization is in progress, we are catching up, and we have a chance to be among the league of developed countries, the league of the successful ones. Or the super league. However, if we have only two percent, like what they have, this would mean we are not catching up. And even though the international situation may be favorable, the modernization would not progress.
Our economy should be innovative, and there you may be trading a big number of innovations. This is what we have almost always failed, despite of some successful stories in the space development, or nuclear construction. But those are, so to say, not peaceful products, and to a big extent those have been parts of the defense industry. Now we are facing different objectives. They are typical for the new stage of Russia's development as a country of market economics.