Economists Propose More Effective Approach to Reducing Smoking

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Economists at HSE University have examined how smokers respond to changes in cigarette prices. When tobacco prices increase, cigarette consumption does not always decline. In fact, spending on tobacco may even rise: according to the researchers, a 1% decrease in cigarette affordability leads to a 0.28% increase in per capita tobacco expenditure. The findings suggest that to reduce smoking rates, tobacco prices must rise faster than household incomes. The study has been published in Voprosy Statistiki.

According to the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre, about 31% of adults in Russia smoke, and in some regions the share of smokers is even higher, reaching 42%. Smoking is the third leading risk factor for death and disability, placing a significant burden on the healthcare system.

Liudmila Zasimova, Assistant Professor at the Department of Applied Economics of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, and Alina Biryukova, Analyst at the Centre for Industrial Policy Studies, analysed how cigarette consumption changes in response to tobacco affordability and identified factors that can encourage people to smoke less.

The researchers examined Rosstat data from 82 Russian regions covering the period from 2011 to 2023, with 1,066 observations included in the final sample. They considered the share of household spending on tobacco, average monthly per capita tobacco expenditure, and the number of cigarette packs purchased per month. To measure cigarette affordability, they estimated how many packs could be purchased with the average income in each region.

The analysis showed that adults in the surveyed regions purchased an average of 2.9 packs of cigarettes per month and spent 176 roubles on tobacco (at 2011 prices). This accounted for 3.6% of total consumer spending. Smoking patterns also varied considerably across regions. In 2023, cigarette consumption was lowest in the North Caucasus republics, the Smolensk region, and Chuvashia, ranging from 0.06 to 1.26 packs per adult per month. The highest consumption was recorded in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Magadan region, and Kamchatka, where adults purchased between 5.5 and 9 packs per month.

As incomes rise, people tend to smoke more: a 1% increase in real income is associated with a 0.24% increase in cigarette consumption. However, when incomes remain unchanged, a 1% increase in cigarette prices has only a limited effect on smoking behaviour, reducing tobacco consumption by just 0.28%.

Alina Biryukova

‘From 2009 to 2016, we observed a positive trend: the share of smokers in Russia declined from 39.4% to 30.9%. However, this progress has stalled over the past decade. The study findings suggest that some smokers adapt to rising prices by changing their purchasing habits—for example, by switching to cheaper cigarette brands or seeking out lower-priced tobacco products,’ explains Alina Biryukova, Analyst at the Centre for Industrial Policy Studies.

According to the authors, one of the most effective ways to combat smoking may be to increase the minimum price of all cigarette packs.

‘Russians are no different from people in other countries in this respect and reduce their cigarette consumption or even quit smoking when the habit becomes less affordable. However, for price increases to have a meaningful impact on sales, cigarette prices must rise faster than incomes. This would further reduce affordability and, consequently, lead to lower tobacco consumption,’ Biryukova notes.