The Threat of Recession and whether it is Possible to Prevent it
Evgeny Yasin, HSE Academic Supervisor, has spoken about the prospects for Russian socio-economic development in his blog on the Ekho Moskvy website.
Last week, one of the top stories in the news was a declaration by Andrey Belousov, Minister of Economic Development, and Andrey Klepach, his Deputy, about a considerable worsening in the forecast for key Russian economic indicators, such as GDP, industrial production, and investment. Belousov spoke about the possibility of further recession, although he stressed that it’s not inevitable.
I have something to say about this problem. First, we should get used to the fact that GDP growth of 2.4% a year is not that bad. I’ve been far more worried about the often-mentioned 7% figure, a number that indicates either the statistics are wrong, or we should expect big problems in the future.
I believe the world is experiencing a change from an industrial stage of development to an innovation one. As art of this, growth rates are likely decrease, and for several years, probably 10-12, key economic indicators will be volatile. New significant innovations will create an innovation boom, but this may well be followed by a period of stagnation and although we cannot currently predict this, they might last up to 20 years. The laws of this new stage of development haven’t been formulated yet.
If we speak about Russia, our main problems are not related not to the aforementioned crisis, but to the transformation of our country, society, and the economy to the terms of a market democracy, to getting rid of the inhibitory influence of traditional institutions and interests. I don’t mean all our traditions, but our habit of either superiority or submission, to preferring little acts of sabotage instead of defending our rights. It’s time to become citizens.
See you soon.