• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site
  • HSE University
  • News
  • Researcher at HSE University in Perm Predicts Electricity Consumption in Residential Buildings

Researcher at HSE University in Perm Predicts Electricity Consumption in Residential Buildings

Researcher at HSE University in Perm Predicts Electricity Consumption in Residential Buildings

© iStock

Aleksey Kychkin, Associate Professor in the Department of Information Technologies in Business at HSE University in Perm, together with Georgios Chasparis, a scientist at the Software Competence Center Hagenberg (SCCH, Austria), built models to predict energy consumption in residential buildings for the day ahead. The electricity consumption profile of a group of residential buildings, which is determined for the day ahead, will allow electricity demand to be effectively managed. The results of the research were published in ‘Energy and Buildings  journal.

The need for accurate balancing in electricity markets and a larger integration of renewable sources of electricity require accurate forecasts of electricity loads in residential buildings. 

Researchers at HSE University in Perm and their Austrian colleagues have been reviewing various forecasting methodologies that have been used in the electric power industry in Russia and Europe for several years to build load profiles of a residential building for the day ahead. Initially, the researchers reviewed standard forecasting methodologies.

The researchers have discovered that electricity loads for groups of buildings connected to the same substation or located in the same energy district change greatly over time, which means that the accuracy of forecasting using persistence models systematically decreases and does not achieve the project’s goal.

The researchers tried to create the best combination of persistence models. But any set of forecasting models always worked a bit worse than the best model in terms of accuracy at a specific time period. The scientists then decided to develop a series of machine learning models that carry out selection of a forecasting strategy taking into account an adaptive strategy. As a result, the research presents three forecasting models: i) the Persistence-based Auto-regressive (PAR) model, ii) the Seasonal Persistence-based Regressive (SPR) model, and iii) the Seasonal Persistence-based Neural Network (SPNN) model. With the help of modelling, the researchers demonstrated the accuracy of forecasting for all considered models based on real energy consumption data of a large number of buildings.

As a result of the experimental calculations, it turned out that the proposed models increase the quality of forecasting for energy consumption. Such models are more robust in relation to persistence models for long time periods, they are prepared for changes in the behaviour of single energy consumers who form a load profile, changes in user behaviour, and seasonal climatic changes.

The Seasonal Persistence-based Regressive (SPR) model with the training sample up to 1 month showed the best accuracy and adaptability. It can be used in the early stages of forecasting buildings’ energy consumption.

As the training sample grows, the researchers recommend switching to models that use neural networks as a tool for determining nonlinear dependencies in the selection mode.

The forecasting strategy presented in the article makes it possible to guarantee an increase in the accuracy of persistence models by at least 5%, which can be critically important for large power systems. The energy consumption profile of a group of residential buildings, which is determined for the day ahead, allows researchers to decide whether it is reasonable to manage price-dependent electricity demand.

The ability to accurately forecast building’s energy consumption also helps researchers to create scenarios for controlling energy storage, which along with pricing models can be used to balance generation and consumption, including the use of renewable energy sources.

See also:

HSE University Strengthens Ties with Netherlands in Agricultural Research and Education

On November 9, 2021, HSE University signed a memorandum of understanding with Wageningen University & Research, a major university in the Netherlands and one of the leading agricultural research institutes in the world. Participants of the signing ceremony included HSE University Rector Nikita Anisimov, President of the Wageningen University & Research Executive Board Professor Louise Fresco, and Dutch Ambassador to Russia Gilles Beschoor Plug.

The Majority of Russians Do Not Support Microchip Implants

The majority of Russians would not agree to being fitted with microchip implants for any purposes—medical or otherwise. A joint study conducted by HSE University’s International Laboratory for Applied Network Research and Aventica found that respondents believe the risks of personal data leaks and misuse to be too high.

‘We Can Now Say That the Finance Conference Is Global’

The 10th International Moscow Finance Conference, organized by HSE ICEF, took place on October 29–30 online. Vladimir Sokolov, Head of the International Laboratory of Financial Economics, which hosted the conference, talks about the participants, the key presentation topics and how they will impact the global economy.

HSE University Scholars Study Green Transition Risks and Greenhouse Gas Emission Regulation

The UN Climate Change Conference is taking place from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow. The conference focuses on preventive measures against the catastrophic and irreversible consequences of rising average global air temperatures. Igor Makarov, Head of the HSE Laboratory for Economics of Climate Change, will be taking part in the Glasgow conference. In the following interview, he speaks about the pressing problems Russia and the world are facing, and the research HSE scholars are doing on climate change.

Applications to Speak at eSTARS 2021 Conference Accepted Until November 15

HSE University and Coursera are bringing together the world’s leading researchers, professionals, education and technology leaders, and business community representatives for the fourth international research conference eLearning Stakeholders and Researchers Summit 2021 (eSTARS). This topic of this year’s summit, which will run from December 1–2, 2021,is ‘Digital Transformation: Global Challenges to the Education System’.

Culture, Arts, Creative Industries, and Tourism Discussed at HSE University’s Conference in Perm

On October 20–22, the second International Conference on Experience Economy: Museum, Event, and Tourism Management was held at HSE University in Perm. Key talks were delivered by Andrea Rurale, the director of the Master’s in Arts Management and Administration at the Bocconi University School of Management, and Guillaume Tiberghien, University of Glasgow.

Ageing and Frailty: International Study and Seminar

In October, a two-day seminar entitled ‘Ageing and frailty in Norway and Russia’ was held by HSE University’s International Laboratory for Population and Health.  In addition to purely demographic results concerning the changing age structure of the population and growing life expectancy, most presentations were devoted to the comparative assessment of physical and cognitive status among elderly people, cardiovascular aging, as well as social and medical support for the elderly. We spoke with the organizers and participants of the seminar about their research findings and the implications for society and public health.

Inequality and Social Cholesterol: How to Find Balance in Society

What are the outcomes of growing inequality? How much inequality is there in Russian healthcare and education? What does Russian society think about inequality? (Spoiler: that it’s excessively high and unfair.) These questions and many others were discussed by Russian and French researchers at the conference ‘Socio-economic Inequality and Poverty in the Modern World: Measures, Dynamics, and Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty’.

Italy, Turkey, and Abkhazia: Outcomes of 2021 HSE IOCS Archaeological Expeditions

This year’s field season is over, and despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic, archaeologists from the Centre of Classical and Oriental Archaeology at the Institute for Oriental and Classical Studies (IOCS) were able to undertake their scheduled expeditions to Italy, Turkey, and Abkhazia. The Centre is the only Russian institution that conducts regular archaeological research in the Mediterranean region—the heart of ancient civilization, where neither Soviet nor Russian classical archaeologists have ever worked before.

‘Today, Ethical Questions Are Front and Centre’

The conference on Philosophy and Culture in Time of Pandemics ran from September 30 to 2 October 2021. It was divided into seven sessions held in a hybrid format. The organizers and participants discussed major topics such as social transformation during the pandemic, the role of mass media in shaping perceptions of the pandemic, and the epistemological and ethical issues that have arisen as a result.