A Future for Everyone: ‘Eurasia Is an Excellent Space for Building Reliable Supply Chains’
At the 2026 St Petersburg International Economic Forum, participants examined the global economy, trade and logistics in turbulent times, as well as the role of pension savings in Russia. Here are highlights from the sessions featuring HSE University experts.
The session of the Valdai International Discussion Club, ‘Future for Everyone, Benefits for All: How to Manage Competition for Resources and Space,’ was opened by Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club and Dean of the HSE Faculty of Creative Industries.
Andrey Bystritskiy
He emphasised that competition between countries is intensifying, while tensions and difficulties are growing in relations both among states and between states and non-state actors. ‘All these issues are further complicated by the fact that we live in an entirely new information and communication environment. We do not yet fully understand the rules of behaviour within it, nor do we completely grasp the logic of its development. However, we can see that it is transforming everything before our eyes, fundamentally reshaping the information landscape and, indeed, the entire space in which people make decisions and consider what actions to take,’ said Andrey Bystritskiy.
The session moderator, Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club and Research Professor at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, noted that the topic under discussion was, on the one hand, very broad and, on the other, highly specific, because it concerns every individual. ‘Whether we like it or not, we share one future. We all live on planet Earth, which is, in reality, a very limited space,’ he said. According to the expert, 10–15 years ago the prevailing view was that common challenges should be addressed collectively. Today, however, each country, community and, to some extent, each individual seeks to solve problems independently, recognising that there is often no one else to rely on. At present, it remains entirely unclear how the international system will evolve.
The development of the global economy was also discussed during the session ‘Trade in Turbulent Times.’ Opening the discussion, Andrey Slepnev, Member of the Board and Minister in Charge for Trade of the Eurasian Economic Commission, noted that in recent years trade instruments have become tools of geopolitics and industrial transformation. Contemporary military conflicts have altered logistics and transport routes, while digitalisation is also reshaping trade. In this rapidly changing environment, each country is making its own decisions regarding the trade policies it chooses to pursue.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk emphasised that transformation is a typical feature of national and economic development, although it is now taking place at an accelerated pace. Changes in trade and industrial policy, logistics and digitalisation are occurring simultaneously and reinforcing one another. The level of uncertainty in international trade has indeed increased as a result of shifts in the global economy, technological change, and climate-related developments. ‘We need to learn how to live with this reality and respond to it appropriately. Those engaged in international trade must learn how to reach agreements, because the balance of power is changing and new centres of economic strength and development are emerging. They have shifted towards the Global South and the East,’ he said.
The Russian government is seeking to adapt the national economy to a new economic reality shaped not only by structural economic changes but also by geopolitical developments. According to Alexey Overchuk, the world economy as a whole is now facing significant challenges, including major risks to logistics security. ‘We understand that alternative routes and new logistics solutions must be developed. We are seeking to make use of the geographical advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union and to implement maritime routes and overland corridor projects,’ the deputy prime minister noted.
Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, drew attention to the use of the climate agenda for economic purposes. She stressed that climate and carbon regulation have become not merely instruments of protectionism but also means of establishing influence over global markets. Many countries are using climate action as an opportunity to support domestic producers, provide preferential financing for green projects, and promote selected sectors of the economy. Climate policy is increasingly becoming part of industrial policy and is being used to create barriers for foreign manufacturers.
‘If this approach proves effective, today we see charges based on carbon footprints; next may come water footprints, then environmental footprints, and everything else associated with modern technologies, value chains, and trade. The climate agenda is one model for the future regulation of trade. There is the blunt approach—a big stick policy, namely tariff wars—and there are more sophisticated methods, but the underlying objective remains the same,’ said the dean.
Anastasia Likhacheva noted that within this system, Russia remains an indispensable supplier of resources linked to both traditional and modern energy sectors, including nuclear power. ‘Everything required for the new technological paradigm, including metals such as copper, tin, nickel, and others, is among the resources for which Russia ranks within the world’s top three or top five suppliers,’ she said. Russia is also one of the world’s leading food exporters.
This position enables the country not only to remain a supplier of critical resources but also to assume the role of a stabilising force in global trade and become one of the foundations of the emerging international trading system. Russia should closely monitor the climate regulations introduced by both competitors and partners, particularly given that China has moved ahead of the Western countries that originally promoted the green agenda.
Russia also needs to support exports by effectively managing its full range of competitive advantages and offering trading partners agreements covering a broad spectrum of trade issues. Finally, the country should become a co-author of new regulatory frameworks and actively participate in drafting them, as rules affecting major suppliers are unlikely to change without their direct involvement.
‘Eurasia is an excellent space for building reliable value-added supply chains,’ Anastasia Likhacheva concluded.
Alexey Mordashov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of PAO Severstal, highlighted the growing fragmentation of global trade under the influence of political factors. Whereas ten years ago trade relations were primarily shaped by economic efficiency, they are now increasingly determined by considerations of power. As a result, every Russian company must develop more resilient systems of cooperation with countries in ASEAN, BRICS, and the Middle East.
The businessman noted that BRICS countries currently account for 40% of global GDP measured by purchasing power parity, creating significant new opportunities. However, unlocking this potential requires reliable payment and logistics systems that are protected from sanctions. ‘We need to create an alternative to the Suez Canal. The North–South Transport Corridor, the construction of a railway link to Iran’s southern ports, and the Northern Sea Route are all elements of the infrastructure needed to expand trade in new directions,’ Alexey Mordashov concluded.
Oksana Sinyavskaya, Deputy Director of the HSE Institute for Social Policy, took part in the session ‘Long-Term Capital for Growth: The Role of Pension Savings in Economic Development’. According to HSE research, the primary participants in long-term savings programmes are people approaching retirement age. Today, these programmes are mainly used by individuals over the age of 45 who have higher education qualifications and sufficient financial resources to participate.
‘As a rule, these are people from the generation that experienced the mandatory funded pension system. They possess a basic level of trust in financial institutions, have experience interacting with them, and understand the importance of providing for their own retirement. However, expanding the programme beyond this core group is quite a challenging task,’ said Oksana Sinyavskaya. ‘On the one hand, we have a solid foundation to build upon: several decades of relatively stable economic development. This is no longer the situation that existed in the early 2000s when the funded pension system was first introduced. Younger generations are much more comfortable with the idea of saving independently, and they are less likely than older generations to expect future pensions to cover anything beyond basic needs.’
At the same time, numerous studies show that people today tend to have a very short planning horizon, the expert notes. Long-term financial products therefore compete not so much with one another as with ‘uncertainty regarding income, employment, and health, as well as with other needs arising at different stages of life’. According to Oksana Sinyavskaya, these competing priorities include major expenses such as purchasing housing and raising children, both of which require substantial financial resources. In her view, resource constraints have a greater impact than levels of trust. Therefore, she argues, ‘it is important to work not with an idealised investor, but with the people with whom we actually live.’
The expert proposed a number of measures that could promote the long-term savings programme. ‘First and foremost, there should be stable and straightforward rules with clear guarantees. It is very important for people to understand that employers provide co-financing and that the state guarantees the safety of their savings,’ said Oksana Sinyavskaya. According to her, many people are still unaware of important programme details, including the possibility of receiving a tax deduction.
Furthermore, programme flexibility is important. This could be achieved through a low entry threshold, the option to pause contributions temporarily, and engagement with younger people through subscription-based mechanisms that are familiar to them. ‘Perhaps it would be worth introducing the possibility of limited withdrawals in a narrow range of serious life circumstances,’ Oksana Sinyavskaya suggested. Another useful measure, in her view, would be the ‘digital visibility of savings’. ‘Russia has made significant progress in the digitalisation of public and financial services, and people are gradually becoming accustomed to monitoring regular reports and updates,’ she noted.
One of the most important tools for promoting the programme, according to Oksana Sinyavskaya, would be the introduction of default enrolment options. ‘All economic research and international experience show that quasi-mandatory participation is a powerful factor in expanding coverage. If enrolment takes place through employers, people are unlikely to object,’ she argued.
Meanwhile, Ivan Chebeskov, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, stated during the session that the volume of assets accumulated within the long-term savings programme could exceed 4.5 trillion roubles by 2030. According to him, approximately 36.7% of all household savings are currently held in long-term forms. ‘We have set a target of increasing investments in the Long-Term Savings Programme to 1% of GDP. We believe that by 2030 the volume of savings accumulated within the programme could exceed 4.5 trillion roubles,’ he said. The deputy minister also noted that pension savings in Russia have recently grown almost exclusively through investment income, while participation by new contributors has remained limited.
According to Anatoly Aksakov, a member of the State Duma, Russian society has not yet fully recognised that saving through non-state pension funds with government support can be beneficial for citizens, investors, and large companies alike. For businesses in particular, he noted, such programmes can serve as an effective tool for employee retention. However, achieving broader public understanding and participation will require substantial additional effort. ‘There is still a great deal of work to be done,’ Anatoly Aksakov concluded.
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