Researcher at HSE University in Perm Predicts Electricity Consumption in Residential Buildings
Aleksey Kychkin, Associate Professor in the Department of Information Technologies in Business at HSE University in Perm, together with Georgios Chasparis, a scientist at the Software Competence Center Hagenberg (SCCH, Austria), built models to predict energy consumption in residential buildings for the day ahead. The electricity consumption profile of a group of residential buildings, which is determined for the day ahead, will allow electricity demand to be effectively managed. The results of the research were published in ‘Energy and Buildings’ journal.
The need for accurate balancing in electricity markets and a larger integration of renewable sources of electricity require accurate forecasts of electricity loads in residential buildings.
Researchers at HSE University in Perm and their Austrian colleagues have been reviewing various forecasting methodologies that have been used in the electric power industry in Russia and Europe for several years to build load profiles of a residential building for the day ahead. Initially, the researchers reviewed standard forecasting methodologies.
The researchers have discovered that electricity loads for groups of buildings connected to the same substation or located in the same energy district change greatly over time, which means that the accuracy of forecasting using persistence models systematically decreases and does not achieve the project’s goal.
The researchers tried to create the best combination of persistence models. But any set of forecasting models always worked a bit worse than the best model in terms of accuracy at a specific time period. The scientists then decided to develop a series of machine learning models that carry out selection of a forecasting strategy taking into account an adaptive strategy. As a result, the research presents three forecasting models: i) the Persistence-based Auto-regressive (PAR) model, ii) the Seasonal Persistence-based Regressive (SPR) model, and iii) the Seasonal Persistence-based Neural Network (SPNN) model. With the help of modelling, the researchers demonstrated the accuracy of forecasting for all considered models based on real energy consumption data of a large number of buildings.
As a result of the experimental calculations, it turned out that the proposed models increase the quality of forecasting for energy consumption. Such models are more robust in relation to persistence models for long time periods, they are prepared for changes in the behaviour of single energy consumers who form a load profile, changes in user behaviour, and seasonal climatic changes.
The Seasonal Persistence-based Regressive (SPR) model with the training sample up to 1 month showed the best accuracy and adaptability. It can be used in the early stages of forecasting buildings’ energy consumption.
As the training sample grows, the researchers recommend switching to models that use neural networks as a tool for determining nonlinear dependencies in the selection mode.
The forecasting strategy presented in the article makes it possible to guarantee an increase in the accuracy of persistence models by at least 5%, which can be critically important for large power systems. The energy consumption profile of a group of residential buildings, which is determined for the day ahead, allows researchers to decide whether it is reasonable to manage price-dependent electricity demand.
The ability to accurately forecast building’s energy consumption also helps researchers to create scenarios for controlling energy storage, which along with pricing models can be used to balance generation and consumption, including the use of renewable energy sources.
On October 20–22, the second International Conference on Experience Economy: Museum, Event, and Tourism Management was held at HSE University in Perm. Key talks were delivered by Andrea Rurale, the director of the Master’s in Arts Management and Administration at the Bocconi University School of Management, and Guillaume Tiberghien, University of Glasgow.
In October, a two-day seminar entitled ‘Ageing and frailty in Norway and Russia’ was held by HSE University’s International Laboratory for Population and Health. In addition to purely demographic results concerning the changing age structure of the population and growing life expectancy, most presentations were devoted to the comparative assessment of physical and cognitive status among elderly people, cardiovascular aging, as well as social and medical support for the elderly. We spoke with the organizers and participants of the seminar about their research findings and the implications for society and public health.
This year’s field season is over, and despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic, archaeologists from the Centre of Classical and Oriental Archaeology at the Institute for Oriental and Classical Studies (IOCS) were able to undertake their scheduled expeditions to Italy, Turkey, and Abkhazia. The Centre is the only Russian institution that conducts regular archaeological research in the Mediterranean region—the heart of ancient civilization, where neither Soviet nor Russian classical archaeologists have ever worked before.
The conference on Philosophy and Culture in Time of Pandemics ran from September 30 to 2 October 2021. It was divided into seven sessions held in a hybrid format. The organizers and participants discussed major topics such as social transformation during the pandemic, the role of mass media in shaping perceptions of the pandemic, and the epistemological and ethical issues that have arisen as a result.
The pandemic has forced many companies to rethink their approach to charity and to change their priorities in terms of corporate social responsibility. Meeting the needs of the elderly, women, and people with disabilities is a top priority, and the social agenda is becoming a key part of HSE University’s educational programmes. These topics were discussed at the business dialogue on Corporate Social Responsibility Beyond COVID-19 hosted by the HSE Graduate School of Business.
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated our swift adaptation to big challenges and strengthened cooperation ties between researchers, politicians, and entrepreneurs on national and global levels. The accumulated life and goal setting practices in the new reality will be discussed on October 15–26, 2021 by participants of the XI International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policy’ organised by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK).
On September 28, the HSE Centre for Cultural Sociology held the first session of the Moscow Culture Workshop 2021–2022 – a series of meetings where participants have an opportunity to discuss research papers prepared by prominent scholars. Jeffrey C. Alexander, Lillian Chavenson Saden Professor of Sociology at Yale University, delivered the first lecture, entitled ‘Nature as Iconic Object: Its Performative Creation’. Dmitry Kurakin, Director of the Centre for Cultural Sociology, spoke to the HSE News Service about the purpose and setup of the workshop.
The project team ‘Regulatory framework to prevent remote work-related psychosocial risks’ of the HSE University Faculty of Law has held an interdisciplinary online workshop to discuss the possible psychosocial risks faced by telecommuters. Participants learned more about the preliminary results of a survey conducted among Russians in summer 2021. In addition, guest experts from French and German universities spoke about EU countries’ experiences in preventing psychosocial risks.
A report by students of MIEM has won a prestigious prize at the 44th International Conference on Telecommunications and Signal Processing organized by Brno University of Technology in the Czech Republic. The project by the HSE students was named the best student work by the organizing committee.
On September 30, Stephen Riegg, Assistant Professor of History of the Texas A&M University, presented his book Russia’s Entangled Embrace: The Tsarist Empire and the Armenians, 1801-1914 at the first seminar of this year’s Boundaries of History series.We spoke with Professor Alexander Semyonov, the seminar chair and the Director of the HSE Centre for Historical Research, about the goals of the seminar and to Stephen Riegg about his research.