The Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis approach enables a fairly comprehensive and detailed analysis of the economic growth sources using the input-output model. The active use of this approach is currently hampered by the lack of a reliable instrumental method for constructing symmetrical input-output tables and deflators that permit the output and import indicators to be recalculated by types of products for different years into constant prices, as well as by ambiguity of interpretations of the content of growth sources. The paper discusses the ways to overcome these methodological problems and gives an example of the experimental use of the structural decomposition analysis approach based on the data of the inputoutput tables of the Russian Federation for 2011–2015.
In recent years, key users of macroeconomic performance indicators have advocated increasing the availability of more detailed productivity statistics. In particular, expanding growth accounts to the industry level to meet the need for more granular measures of economic performance. In response to this, Australia and Russia have developed estimates of industry level KLEMS (Capital (K), Labor (L), Energy (E), Materials (M) and Services (S)) productivity growth. The chapter considers the progress of Australia and Russia KLEMS projects in terms of data construction and the usage of KLEMS for better understanding of industry sources of growth. For both countries, at least two decades of KLEMS data are now available, supporting more in-depth analysis of the determinants of growth at the industry level.
Strong growth, intensive structural change and expanding informality have characterized many developing and emerging economies in recent decades. Yet most empirical investigations into the relationship between structural change and productivity growth overlook informality. This paper includes the informal sector in an analysis of the effects of structural changes in the Russian economy on aggregate labour productivity growth. Using a newly developed dataset for 34 industries covering the period 1995–2012 and applying three alternative approaches, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into intra-industry and inter-industry contributions. All three approaches show that the overall contribution of structural change is growth-enhancing, significant and decreasing over time. Labour reallocation from the formal sector to the informal sector tends to reduce growth through the extension of informal activities with low productivity levels. Sectoral labour reallocation effects are found to be highly sensitive to the methods applied.
On the eve of transition in the late 1980’s the perspectives of the economic development for most economies of the Soviet Bloc in Central, Southern and Eastern Europe seemed optimistic. They had been already industrialized; their labor force was relatively healthy and educated. Being technological backwards in many industries these countries had lots of opportunities for catch up, extending international trade and allowing the inflow of foreign direct investments. However, after two decades of transition these expectations did not materialize to the fullest extent. On the one hand, by 2008, the last year before the global financial crisis, GDP per capita of all post-transition economies grew, except Moldova and Ukraine. On the other hand, six of the twenty economies of the region increased the lag behind the twelve advanced West European economies (EU12). A reasonable question in this context is to what extent is this backward take-off caused by the command-economy past or some myopic country-specific issues of the post-transition development?
With the growth accounting framework this study confirms the leading role of total factor productivity in late transition at the aggregate level. Delving into industry levels the literature shows that, at least, for some East European economies the key driver of TFP growth in most CEE economies was manufacturing. This is not surprising, because manufacturing was also one of the most technologically backward sectors of the economy in early transition with multiple opportunities for improvements through adaptation of better practices and ways of production from the West. So, catching up in technologies seems to be the most essential driver of the post transition growth.
At the same time, this exposition of the story of growth in transition critically depends on data quality, essential for measurement of economic growth and productivity. That is why it is important also to take into account that transition in economies of the region coincided with the transition in state statistics from the Material Product System of national accounts to the United Nations System of National Accounts. All this is important for understanding of the limitations of existing data and suggested interpretations, especially in the comparative perspective with developed economies.
Two problems associated with the adequacy of traditional methods for describing the national economy as an object of study are considered. The first of them is due to the fact that technological progress leads to a decrease in the degree of representativeness of traditional macroeconomic indicators, i.e. to reduce the degree of representativeness of generally accepted methods of describing the economy. The second problem is related to the erosion of the borders of the national economy in connection with the processes of globalization, which leads to the fact that the national economy is gradually losing its representativeness as an object of study.
To date, macroeconomic science has grown extraordinarily and acquired thousands of interesting theoretical models and serious empirical research. The purpose of this work is to draw the attention of Russian researchers to some issues that seem especially significant.
The discussion of the draft "Development Strategy of the Federal State Statistics Service until 2024" by participants of the professional and expert community is given. The comments made, suggestions and comments will be studied in preparing the final text of the Rosstat Development Strategy until 2024.
The paper discusses the formation and development of a modern Russian university economic journal, using the «HSE Economic Journal» as an example. A brief outline of the development of the journal is given, the appearance of which was determined by the transformation processes simultaneously taking place in the economy, the community of specialists and the university. The development of the Journal at the present stage is discussed in more detail. The problems of choosing a thematic niche of the Journal, determining its target audience, language policy are considered. The expediency of the Journal’s orientation to the publication of articles devoted to studies of the Russian economy and other transition and post-transition economies is substantiated. Concentration on this topic allows us to realize the competitive advantages of Russian researchers, and the Journal is able to provide a qualified examination of manuscripts. The possibilities of improving the quality of published articles, issues of interaction with the academic community, and problems of professional ethics are discussed. Considerations are given for organizing an open full-text electronic version of the Journal. The issues of increasing its visibility in the academic and expert communities are considered.
This paper studies the organisational structure of contracting out transportation operations to a vertical partnership between local authorities and a vertically integrated monopoly. Pricing decisions are delegated to the partnership operating in the downstream market as a socially concerned firm that maximises a weighted sum of social welfare and profits. The price for essential input required to produce each unit of the transportation service is determined by the monopoly in the upstream market for rolling stock and crew leasing. A forward ownership interest in the vertical partnership held by the monopoly yields a partial rebate of the downstream margin. In turn, the local authorities can extract the upstream monopoly rent via a franchise fee which can be determined ex post. Our theoretical model predicts that local authorities with a relatively high share in the partnership should decrease the net transfer from the budget by increasing the franchise fees if the upstream profit margins are high. The empirical evidence for the impact of the ownership structure on contractual regime is found in the panel data for 25 suburban passenger companies in Russia in 2011-2015, where partial cost recovery and inappropriate compensation plays the role of pseudo-franchising contracts
Recent decades were turbulent for the Russian economy. They include the transformational output fall until 1998, recovery in 1999-2008, and stagnation after the global crisis of 2008. What were main drivers of performance of the Russian economy in these years? The present chapter highlights three main sources of growth, which are windfall profits from energy export, technology catching up in manufacturing, finance and business services, and the negative influence of expanding informal economy to aggregate labour productivity growth.
The present study reports, that oil and gas money fuelled Russian growth in the form of capital services in extended mining and market services. The contribution of capital input was higher in years of soaring oil prices. One more factor of growth was catching up in manufacturing, which is rooted in the fact that Russia, as well as other Central and East European socialist economies on the eve of transition from plan to market, were backwards in technologies in comparison with advanced economies. Finally, the remarkable peculiarity of the Russian economy is the expanding share of informal labour, especially in years of outstanding growth before 2008. This makes Russia, to a certain extent, similar to India. Splitting industries into formal and informal segments and estimating the contribution of labour reallocation we report, that expanding informality slowdowns labour productivity growth.
The transition of the Russian economy from plan to market is considered at a qualitative level. The analysis of economic dynamics in the transformation paradigm is conducted. The main stages of the transition process are discussed. Bonuses and costs due to the transition to market economy are considered. The reasons for the outstripping growth of well-being as compared to the growth of output are discussed. The signs of exhaustion of the potential of factors ensuring an abnormally high rate of recovery and accompanying welfare growth are discussed. The conclusion is made that the transformational recovery has been completed. The Russian economy has moved to the stage of development with relatively low growth rates of output and welfare, typical for stable (nontransition) economies.
The discussion on My Five Major Challenges as a Teacher was the first meeting within professional development program for HSE faculty, namely, Teach for HSE. The program is designed to improve teaching skills and represents a working tool that will allow any committed teacher to either design a new course from scratch or to redesign an existing one. Participants will discuss teaching models adopted by the leading universities. In the first cycle, the focus will be placed on problem-based learning. The organizers hope that the program will stimulate an ever wider discussion on teaching to evolve. In this paper the reader is introduced to four personal reflections on teaching experiences by teachers in widely different domains: sociology, economics, political science, and English as a foreign language. Even though they have been teaching to college students for many years, every day they have to answer questions regarding what to teach, how to teach, what to teach for, and whom they teach.
In this article we discuss modern conditions and new approaches to the implementation of industrial policy in the world and in Russia. Having considered a number of Russian cases, we have found such problems of politics as insufficient orientation at new drivers of changes, excessive fragmentation of directions, locality of the achieved results, poor selection of successful practices. In conditions of high technological uncertainty, there is the demand for a searchoriented industrial policy, including the launching of various pilots, regular assessment of effects, termination of ineffective projects. We raise, as an agenda for the future, the issue of transition to a multidimensional policy oriented at a set of structural changes in the economy and the formation of effective management teams for the implementation of relevant initiatives. Besides, we believe the project approach to initiating structural shifts should be combined with institutional changes, increased demonstration effects, improved attractiveness of the national jurisdiction for fast-growing companies and new sectors.In this article we discuss modern conditions and new approaches to the implementation of industrial policy in the world and in Russia. Having considered a number of Russian cases, we have found such problems of politics as insufficient orientation at new drivers of changes, excessive fragmentation of directions, locality of the achieved results, poor selection of successful practices. In conditions of high technological uncertainty, there is the demand for a searchoriented industrial policy, including the launching of various pilots, regular assessment of effects, termination of ineffective projects. We raise, as an agenda for the future, the issue of transition to a multidimensional policy oriented at a set of structural changes in the economy and the formation of effective management teams for the implementation of relevant initiatives. Besides, we believe the project approach to initiating structural shifts should be combined with institutional changes, increased demonstration effects, improved attractiveness of the national jurisdiction for fast-growing companies and new sectors.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as a reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and three methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry–Boschan method, and Markov-switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was only possible on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.
Matrix updating methods are used for constructing the target matrix with the prescribed row and column marginal totals that demonstrates the highest possible level of its structural similarity to initial matrix given. A concept of structural similarity has a vague framework that can be slightly refined under considering a particular case of strict proportionality between row and column marginal totals for target and initial matrices. Here the question arises: can we accept the initial matrix homothety as optimal solution for proportionality case of matrix updating problem?
In most practical situations an affirmative answer to the question is almost obvious. It is natural to call this common notion by homothetic paradigm and to refer its checking as homothetic testing. Some well-known methods for matrix updating serve as an additional instrumental confirmation to validity of homothetic paradigm. It is shown that RAS method and Kuroda’s method pass through the homothetic test successfully.
Homothetic paradigm can be helpful for enhancing a collection of matrix updating methods based on constrained minimization of the distance functions. Main attention is paid to improving the methods with weighted squared differences (both regular and relative) as an objective function.
As an instance of a incorrigible failure in the homothetic testing, the GRAS method for updating the economic matrices with some negative entries is analyzed in details. A collection of illustrative numerical examples and some recommendations for method’s choice are given.