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ResearcherID: I-1940-2015
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N. Akindinova
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Sergey V. Smirnov

  • Sergey V. Smirnov has been at HSE University since 2009.

Education and Degrees

  • 1990

    Lomonosov Moscow State University

  • 1986

    Candidate of Sciences* (PhD) in Mathematical and Instrumental Methods in Economics
    Lomonosov Moscow State University

  • 1978

    Lomonosov Moscow State University

* Candidate of Sciences
According to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) 2011, Candidate of Sciences belongs to ISCED level 8 - "doctoral or equivalent", together with PhD, DPhil, D.Lit, D.Sc, LL.D, Doctorate or similar. Candidate of Sciences allows its holders to reach the level of the Associate Professor.

Courses (2023/2024)

Courses (2022/2023)

Courses (2021/2022)

Big Data in Macroeconomic Analysis (Bachelor’s programme; Faculty of Economic Sciences; 3 year, 2 module)Rus


Articles and book chapters60


Working papers10

Business Media


  • 2018

    34th CIRET Conference Economic Tendency Surveys and Economic Policy (Rio de Janeiro ). Presentation: A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia

  • 2017

    CIRET/KOF/WIFO Workshop (Вена). Presentation: Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia

  • 2016

    33rd CIRET Conference "Economic Tendency Surveys and Economic Policy" (Копенгаген). Presentation: Wishful Bias in Predicting US Recessions: Indirect Evidence

  • 2015
    CIRET/KOF Workshop "Economic Cycles and Uncertainty" (Варшава). Presentation: Dating Cyclical Turning Points: Formal Methods and Informal Choices (Case of Russia)
  • 4th Workshop on Harmonisation of the BRICS's Tendency Surveys (Варшава). Presentation: A Book on Economic Cycles in the BRICS’ countries
  • 35th International Symposium on Forecasting (Riverside). Presentation: Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?

  • Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the production of Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators (Женева). Presentation: Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators in Russia: Cooperation Between Rosstat and Think-Tanks is Needed

  • 2014

    3rd Workshop on Harmonisation of the BRICS's Tendency Surveys (Ханчжоу). Presentation: Growth and Crises in the Planned and Market Russian Economy (1920s-2014)

  • 32nd CIRET Conference. Economic Tendency Surveys and Economic Policy (Hangzhou). Presentation: Predicting the US Recessions: Does a “Wishful” Bias Exist?

  • 2013

    Гайдаровский Форум "Россия и мир: вызовы интеграции" (Москва). Presentation: Опросы профессиональных прогнозистов и методы прогнозирования

  • 2nd Workshop on Harmonisation of the BRICS's Tendency Surveys (Цюрих). Presentation: Russian Economic Growth and Economic Crises While Moving From Planned to Market Economy (1960-2013)

  • CIRET/KOF Workshop on Sectoral Dimensions in Economic Cycles (Цюрих). Presentation: Cyclical Patterns of Railroad Freight Transportation (RFT) in Russia

  • 2012

    Гайдаровский форум -2012 "Россия и мир: 2012-2020". Круглый стол "Экономическая политика и модернизация в условиях циклических колебаний" (Москва). Presentation: О датировке российских экономических циклов

  • "Economic Tendency Surveys and Economic Policy", 31st CIRET Conference (Вена). Presentation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters for Russia: Is It Useful to Predict Cyclical Turning Points?

  • The 32nd Annual International Symposium on Forecasting (Бостон). Presentation: Those Unpredictable Recessions…
  • 2011

    CIRET/KOF/HSE Workshop on National Business Cycles in the Global World (Москва). Presentation: Cyclical Mechanisms in the US and Russia: Why are they different?

  • 5th Joint European Commission-OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys (Brussels). Presentation: Those Unpredictable Recessions…

  • 2010

    XI Международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества (Москва). Presentation: Экономический цикл и стабилизирующий эффект курсовой политики (проявляется ли он в развивающихся странах)

  • 30th CIRET Conference. (Нью-Йорк). Presentation: Recent Economic Crisis as a Crash-Test for Competing Cyclical Indicators: The Russian Experience

  • Третий международный семинар по опережающим показателям и показателям экономического цикла (Москва). Presentation: Russian Cyclical Indicators: Their Usefulness in ‘Real Time’

  • Франко-российская научно-практическая конференция «Экономика, политика, общество: новые вызовы, новые возможности» (Москва). Presentation: Leading Indicators for Russia: Did They Actually Lead During the Crisis of 2008-2009

  • 2009

    Ежегодная конференция АНЦЭА (Москва). Presentation: Циклы в экономике России: историческая ретроспектива, 1861-2009

  • Х Международная научная конференция ГУ-ВШЭ (Москва). Presentation: Ошибки денежных властей как фактор экономических кризисов (на примере США, после 1970 г.)

  • 2006

    28th CIRET Conference - Cyclical Indicators and Economic Policy Decisions (Рим). Presentation: A New System of Cyclical Indicators for Russia

Moscow State University, Economic Department

Curriculum Vitae

  • February 2009 - present: "Development Center" Institute (HSE), Deputy Director
  • 2007 - 2009: "Development Center" Foundation, Deputy Director
  • 2002 - 2006: "Development Center" Foundation, Leading Expert
  • 2000 - 2002: "Global Chance", Chief Analyst
  • 1998 - 2000: Institute of Investment Problems (“ROSPROM”), Leading expert
  • 1995 - 1998: Institute of Investment Problems (“MENATEP”), Leading expert
  • 1992 - 1995: Informational and Social Technologies Center (under the Government of Russian
  • Federation), Expert and Leading Research Fellow
  • 1987-1992: Institute of World Economy and International Relations (Russian Academy of
  • Sciences), Senior Research Fellow
  • 1979 - 1987: Economic Department of Moscow State University (Research Fellow)

Organization and fulfillment of scientific and analytical projects; research of world and Russian economies; analyses of business cycles

Professional Interests

Macroeconomics; International Comparisons; Business Cycles

Timetable for today

Full timetable

Russian Economic Prospects: Moderately Optimistic Forecasts

From April 6–7, the HSE Centre of Development Institute conducted a special survey among professional forecasters on the Russian economy’s prospects for 2020-2021. The experts expect a decline this year due to the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices this year, but predict that the losses will be fully recouped in 2021.

On the Verge of a Recession: HSE Experts Begin Measuring Stress Levels in the Russian Economy

The HSE Centre of Development Institute has begun publishing the Daily Economic Stress Index (DESI), which tracks economic activity in the financial markets and in the real sector. Current stress index indicators do not paint an optimistic picture – they significantly exceed the background retrospective values ​​since 1997, indicating a high probability of a recession.

Top 15. HSE's Most Interesting Research in 2015

Public misperceptions of inequality; Sanctions hit the best companies; How high is mortality in Russia?; How the type of university affects graduates' salaries; What national pride means; Muslims sharing a Protestant ethic; Economic inactivity among Russians; Russian travellers reluctant to book hotels online; The right to be forgotten; and Analysts can be wrong – these were the HSE's most interesting research papers in 2015, according to Opec.ru.