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The problems and outlooks of the transition of russian economy to the new model of economic growth

Priority areas of development: sociology
2014
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Goal of research: to identify key issues and to assess the prospects of the present stage of the transition to the new model of economic growth in Russia. 

Achieving this goal involves the following tasks: regular monitoring and analysis of macroeconomic processes in the US, Eurozone and China, as well as the situation in the global financial markets; monitoring and analysis of macroeconomic processes taking place in the Russian economy and its main sectors (real, banking, financial, public and household ones), foreign trade, and financial and capital flows to the rest of the world; regular monitoring of monetary, exchange and fiscal policy of the Russian authorities, including those aimed at changing the structure of the economy; assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the state economic policy; monitoring of institutional changes in the Russian economy according to the international rankings; assessment of short-term prospects of the Russian economy on the basis of the regular surveys of experts on macroeconomic forecasting, as well as with the use of the system of cyclical indicators; formulation of development scenarios for the global and Russian economies in the short and medium term based on macroeconomic modeling; improvement of the model and econometric tools needed to the accomplishment of the outlined tasks.

Methodology: in the analysis of the current situation and the short-term prospects of the Russian economy we used the statistical and econometric methods of the analysis of factual evidence, the surveys of professional macroeconomic forecasters, and the analysis on the basis of the specially developed system of composite indices, leading the overall economic dynamics in 1-2 quarters. The medium and long-term forecasting was made with the use of multidimensional macroeconomic model, allowing to simulate different scenarios of the Russian economy development, to identify its "bottlenecks" and to evaluate the potential effectiveness of different measures of state regulation.

Empirical base of research: statistical, graphical and detailed econometric analysis was based on the information contained in the databases of Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Customs Service, as well as with other international and national sources. Also, the official Forecasts of socio-economic development of Russia, the draft Law on the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the draft Guidelines for the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, the documents of strategic planning of Russia were used.

Results of research: the study identified the major trends of the world economy development and assessed prospects for economic growth in the US and the euro area; the key problems of the Russian economy in the time of increased foreign confrontation include the continued slowdown of economic growth and labor productivity, increased capital outflow and negative dynamics of investment, inflation growth, which led to the deterioration of the dynamics of income and consumption. The main channels of the impact of international sanctions on the development of the Russian economy include the restricted access to the refinancing for Russian companies and banks, the restriction of trade in goods, technologies and services in the oil and gas industry (development of hard-to-reach deposits in the Arctic and shelf), as well as the supply of goods and technologies for military and dual purpose. The increase in the balance of payments disproportions, as well as the falling of the oil prices started from the middle of 2014 created conditions for the rapid depreciation of the ruble, which took the form of a currency crisis in December, accompanied by the increase in volatility of the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble mitigated the negative effects of ceased economic growth and lower oil prices for the execution of the federal budget; however, the problem of the imbalance of regional budgets remains on the agenda. Restricted access to the foreign resources has led to the increase in imbalances in the banking system, and to the threat of a banking crisis. The government has limited ability to influence the growth with fiscal stimulus. The scope of monetary easing is limited by both inflationary risks and the high propensity of banks and enterprises to disinvestments. According to the international rankings of the World Economic Forum and the World Bank, the institutional changes in the Russian economy are limited. The regular surveys of experts on macroeconomic forecasting, as well as the dynamics of cyclical indicators developed for the Russian economy point to ceased economic growth and to the increase in the likelihood of a recession. Feasibility analysis of the official scenarios of the medium term development of global and Russian economies has showed that the official estimates used in the calculation of budget parameters for 2015-2017 are overly optimistic in terms of both the external environment and the expected economic growth.

Level of implementation,  recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of the use of the obtained results for the publication of regular analytical papers addressed to the interested organizations, namely The comments on the socio-economic development of Russia, the draft Law on the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the draft Guidelines for the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, as well as recommendations to the President, the Government and the Bank of Russia. The scope of the use of the results lies in the informational and analytical support of the Government and the Bank of Russia on the economy and economic policy issues.

Publications:


Alexeev M., Chernyavskiy A. Natural Resources And Economic Growth In Russia’s Regions / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2014.
Mironov V., Petronevich A. Discovering the signs of dutch disease in Russia / Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition. Series DP "BOFIT Discussion Papers". 2015.