The aim of research was development of new models in the framework of the system of models elaborated by the staff of the laboratory for analysis and forecasting of Russian economy and its separate sectors. These new models should correspond to changing economic environment of Russia. The models should be ready for both fundamental and applied researches running by researchers, students and PhD-students of NRU HSE.
Methodology of research combines econometric, general equilibrium, and analytical approaches to modeling of contemporary economic processes in separate branches of Russian economy.
Some significant improvements were made during this year. Some sectorial models of Russian economy have been modified. Declining growth rate of both global and Russian economy forced to take into account new economic reality and to check robustness of the previously developed models under new circumstances. There were developed some solutions to arisen problems including modelling of heterogeneous consumers, modeling of influence of fixed capital investments on technological efficiency in American and Russian industries, modeling of the Russian banking system's behavior, modelling of influence of spatial variables on interregional migration in Russia, analysis of forecasters’ rationality.
The main scientific results are the following.
The new version of Russian banking system was developed and it was calibrated on real data. The calculations results gave a set of parameters such that accuracy in fitting to real data reached 99% for dynamics of principal banking aggregates. Tease are credits and deposits in both rubles and currency, liquidity, transfers to and out from Central Bank of Russia.
This year modeling of influence of fixed capital investments on technological coefficients of production functions for 6 US manufacturing industries was continued. The core result is that the relationship between investments and costs suggests that from a theoretical point of view investment is not simply a source of capital accumulation; it influences the level of technology in industry through production costs as endogenous growth theory predicts. The VAR and ECM models were used. It has been shown that US industries – like Russian ones – are non-homogeneous with respect to influence of fixed capital investments.
The SFA approach was used for analysis of productivity on firm level for food industry and transportation machinery industry. The increasing scale of returns was revealed in all sectors under research. For transportation machinery industry the firm size and year indicator turned out to be significant for technical efficiency of the firm.
The model of interregional migration in Russia with time and spatial lags was developed. Three versions of the model were built: for Russia as whole, and foe West and East Russia separately. Results gave evidence net migration coefficient highly depends on economic growth, but not on income growth. It was shown that GRP in adjacent regions negatively correlated with migration. At same time there shown that share of students more influences on migration than share of persona with higher education.
Rationality of individual experts’ forecasts from data bases SPF-US and SPF-ECB was investigated. The experts were divided into two groups: “rational” and “irrational”. Consensus-forecasts were built for both subsamples and for the whole sample. The accuracy of forecasts was compared on pairwise basis. It was shown that rationality is not the indicator for subdivision. Forecast of “rational” experts are not more accurate then ones of “irrational” experts. Moreover consensus-forecasts cannot be classified as rational.
The foreign partners were
Maurel Mathilde, Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
Maison des Sciences Economiques, http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/membres/m-chercheurs/
Duchene Gerard, Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne, http://www.en.u-pec.fr/
Sasha Sardavar, Wienna University of Economics and Business, http://www.wu.ac.at/wgi/institut/team/forscher/sardadvar