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Monitoring of risks of socio-political destabilization in the "Afro-Asiatic" zone of instability

Priority areas of development: humanitarian
2014
Department: Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Object of research: socio-political processes in Asia and Africa.

Goal of research: system monitoring and analysis of social and political transformation of "Afro-Asiatic" zone of instability, prediction on this basis of social and political development of countries in this macro-region, the subsequent development of practical recommendations for overcoming or avoiding social and political instability, as well as other actions of Russian state authorities and Russian organizations under the conditions of potential destabilization.

Methodology: the project is based on structural-functional approach (it implicates consideration of the political sphere as a whole system that has a complex structure, each element of which has a specific purpose and performs particular functions to meet the relevant requirements of the system and its expectations) that allows predicting the post-crisis socio-political transformations. The main research method is a systematic method based on the modern theory of political systems. In addition, situational analysis, methods of political sociology, as well as the essential elements of the political and historical, political and philosophical approaches will also be used in the study.

Empirical base of research: the empirical base of research is a combination of field research data collected during the trips to Egypt, Morocco and Yemen, the statistics of the League of Arab States, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, United Nations Population Division, as well as news reports of Arab, Russian and international news agencies.

Results of research:

  1. The analysis and systematization of factors of international political development of "Afro-Asiatic" zone of instability, risks and threats of the growth of social and political instability were carried out.
  2. The adapting of methodic and methodological foundations of the research to the study of international political development under the conditions of instability and crisis of the ruling regimes was begun.
  3. The influence of the "center-periphery dissonance" on destabilizing processes was studied.
  4. The study of civilizational factors of the "Afro-Asiatic" zone of instability formation was continued.
  5. The technique of determining the level of support for illegal opposition movements was developed.
  6. The technique of using the dynamics of stock market indices to identify the risks of social and political destabilization was introduced.
  7. The study of conditions of counter-revolutionary situations occurrence in the Arab world after the "Arab Spring" was begun.
  8. The monitoring of demographic risks of social and political instability in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa was continued.
  9. The influence of the Great convergence processes on destabilizing processes was analyzed.

5. Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

  1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Special attention in 2014 as part of the project was given to the analysis of the current state of Russian politics and key interests of the Russian Federation in Egypt and existing potential for development of bilateral relations on the most important areas for the Russian Federation. The roundtable discussion "Possibilities and limits of cooperation between Russia and Egypt" with the participation of leading experts in Oriental Studies, economists, diplomats, experts in the field of military-technical cooperation, etc., was held. According to the results of the roundtable discussion there were developed practical recommendations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation in order to better use the existing potential of the development of bilateral relations between Russian Federation and the Arab Republic of Egypt.
  2. Committees of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Within the field researches in the Republic of Yemen in 2014 there were collected and processed the interviews with representatives of political power, the scientific, expert and business communities of the Republic of Yemen. Respondents expressed the ideas of the most promising areas of cooperation and specific methods to eliminate existing barriers; such ideas were considered in the preparation of practical recommendations for the development of Russian-Yemeni relations and were delivered to the relevant committees of the State Duma.
  3. Тhe Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation, the Government Expert Council of the Russian Federation, Business Russia. The laboratory participated in the preparation of demographic report together with those structures.

Publications:


Шишкина А. Р. Интернет-цензура и "арабская весна" // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2014. № 1 (093). С. 144-155.
Шишкина А. Р., Исаев Л. М., Коротаев А. В. Щит ислама? Исламский фактор распространения ВИЧ в Африке // В кн.: История и математика: Аспекты демографических и социально-экономических процессов / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. Е. Гринин. Волгоград : Учитель, 2014. С. 184-193.
Исаев Л. М., Ожерельева М. В. "Арабская осень"? // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2014. Т. 95. № 3. С. 29-37.
Исаев Л. М., Шишкина А. Р. Соблазненные революцией // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2014
Коротаев А. В., Исаев Л. М. Анатомия египетской контрреволюции // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2014. № 8. С. 91-100.
Зинькина Ю. В. Способно ли образование предотвратить социально-демографические коллапсы в Тропической Африке? // Историческая психология и социология истории. 2014. № №2. С. ---.
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A. What does global migration network say about recent changes in the world-system structure? // International Journal of Multicultural Education. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 146-160.
Исаев Л. М. Генералы ушли, генералы вернулись: египетской революции - три года // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2014. № 1. С. 123-132.
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A. Projecting Mozambique’s demographic future // Journal of Futures Studies. 2014. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 21-40.
Korotayev A., Zinkina J. V. On the Structure of the Present-Day Convergence // Campus Wide Information Systems. 2014. No. 31/2–3. P. 139-152. doi
Зинькина Ю. В. Тропическая Африка: брачный возраст и рождаемость // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2014. № №4. С. 39-45.
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A. Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts (Emerging Risks and Way Out) // World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2014. No. 70/2. P. 120-139.
Акаев А. А., Садовничий В. А., Коротаев А. В., Малков С. Ю. Моделирование и прогнозирование мировой динамики. М. : Институт социально-политических исследований РАН, 2012.
Grinin L. E., Tsirel S. V., Korotayev A. Will the explosive growth of China continue? // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 95. P. 294-308. doi
Шишкина А. Р., Медушевский Н. Образовательные системы стран Центральной Азии: вызовы, риски, перспективы // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. Е. Гринин, Л. М. Исаев, А. Р. Шишкина. Вып. 5. Волгоград : Учитель, 2014. С. 324-363.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Stability of Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Globalization: Revolution and Democracy // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. 2015. Vol. 9. No. 4
Исаев Л. М., Малков С. Ю., Кузьминова Е. В. Оценка потенциала социально-политической нестабильности в странах Центральной Азии с помощью «индекса нестабильности» // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. Е. Гринин, Л. М. Исаев, А. Р. Шишкина. Вып. 5. Волгоград : Учитель, 2014. Гл. 8. С. 308-324.
Исаев Л. М., Коротаев А. В., Руденко М. А. Ортокузенный брак, женская занятость и «афразийская» зона нестабильности // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. Е. Гринин, Л. М. Исаев, А. Р. Шишкина. Вып. 5. Волгоград : Учитель, 2014. Гл. 5. С. 170-197.
Исаев Л. М., Коротаев А. В., Васильев А. М. Военные вновь у власти? // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2014. № 10. С. 2-7.