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Assessment of effectiveness, forecasting and determination of strategic priorities for R&D sphere

Priority areas of development: economics

Research object is R&D sphere, tendencies of its development and methodological approaches to forecasting of its dynamics.

The key aim of the study is development of theoretical concepts and methodological approaches, which are implemented to assess effectiveness of R&D, to forecast further dynamics of this sphere and to determine the strategic priorities for its development. This aim strongly corresponds with the applied one – analysis of state-of-art and prospects for future development of selected fields of science and technology in modern Russia.

Methodological foundations of the research are formed by a combination of methods and research instruments, which are developed and implemented in Russian and foreign studies aimed at investigation of R&D sphere, including: methods of bibliometric and patent analysis, expert surveys and content-analysis.

Empirical basis of the research includes the following resources:

  1. Results of analysis of the data provided by bibliometric and patent databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Rospatent database, QPat);
  2. Statistical data of Russian and international organizations on R&D in different countries and regions of the world (Rosstat, Rospatent, OECD, World Bank, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, WIPO, Eurostat);
  3. Results of the federal statistical survey based on the questionnaire №2-nauka;
  4. Legislative and normative databases of the Russian Federation and foreign countries;
  5. Results of expert surveys.

In 2014, the main research results have been achieved in the following areas:

  1. Identification and systematization of effects stemming from application of green technologies in the energy sector;
  2. Analysis of methods for short-term forecasting of R&D indicators dynamics;
  3. Methodological recommendations for identification of weak signals and wild cards;
  4. Development of methodological approaches to Foresight for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs);
  5. Elaboration of a patent-based methodological approach for analysis of countries’ technological development;
  6. Development of a complex methodology for quantitative sociological model of the processes of citation in modern science.

Within the research project aimed at identification and systematization of effects stemming from application of green technologies in the energy sector a classification of the key effects of the new oil and gas technologies in Russia was developed. It includes social, economic, environmental, entrepreneurial, security, structural and geopolitical effects. Each of these groups is analyzed and thoroughly described in the research report and the papers published by LST members on the topic. Another key result of the study is an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the methods and instruments, that are employed to support the process of technological modernization. In order to fulfil this task, an analysis of the approaches for stimulation of new technologies in oil and gas sectors was undertaken.

As an outcome of the project on a nalysis of methods for short-term forecasting of R&D indicators dynamics there was a methodology developed for short-term forecasting of indicators which are traditionally used to characterize R&D sphere. The methodology offered was then tested through the experimental calculations of the key statistical indicators in order to evaluate different aspects of functioning of the Russian R&D sector. They demonstrated that the developed methodology combining quantitative methods and expertise can be successfully applied for the aims of short-term forecasting of R&D indicators dynamics.

Within the framework of the project devoted to formulation of methodological recommendations for identification of weak signals and wild cards the main results were the following: a comparative analysis of the definitions of weak signals and wild cards, an overview of their characteristics, a classification of the methods for their identification. Also the project allowed to determine the key groups of methods which might be recommended as the basic methodological steps to identify weak signal and wild cards: scanning and monitoring, clustering, literature review, modeling, expert procedures and others. These methods can be used separately, but the study has demonstrated that the combination thereof is more effective.

The next research project was aimed at the development of methodological approaches for Foresight targeted at SMEs. Its main results embrace a comparative analysis of the Foresight methods implemented for corporations and SMEs, which demonstrated that the latter need an adaptive technique, and an overview of the best global practices of conducting Foresight for small and medium-sized businesses. These outputs allowed us to formulate an algorithm of Foresight study for SMEs taking into account financial, human and other restrictions. The elaborated methodology can be applied for a particular small/medium-sized company or the group of companies in order to plan promising product line, create innovation strategies and communicate with investors and other economic agents.

As an outcome of the project devoted to the development of a patent-based methodology for analysis of countries’ technological development there was a methodological approach developed which can be implemented to study state-of-art and dynamics of different technological areas. It is based on a combination of quantitative methods which are typical for studies in this area and qualitative methods which are more traditional for sociological research. The developed methodology was tested in the framework of the Russian biotechnological sphere analysis which allowed to determine the key peculiarities and tendencies of development of biotechnologies in Russia and to define the factors which impede its further progress. Another important result of the study is a detailed overview of information sources of patent data and their potential and limitations.

In the framework of the study aimed at the d evelopment of a complex quantitative sociological model of citation processes in science : the methodological foundations of bibliometric analysis were analyzed, the specific methods of citation and co-citation analysis were investigated, and the sources of information which might be used for these studies were described. Also, special attention was paid to the notion of research fronts that are formed on the basis of citation and co-citation data. As a result of the project, an algorithm of research fronts identification was developed, and the potential limitations of this research strategy were described.

Field of application: The results of the above mentioned projects are intended for development of theoretical and methodological approaches for the analysis of innovation systems’ components and functions; development of empirical studies of science, technology and innovation; production of policy-relevant knowledge on the approaches for stimulating the efficiency and intensity of innovation across the economy sectors.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of results: theresults were communicated via a number of highly praised scientific and expert platforms, including OECD Expert Groups, international conferences (e.g. XV HSE April Conference, Moscow) and research seminars. The discussion of the results influenced the applied projects performed by HSE in the areas of policy advice, including projects for Ministry of Economic Development and Ministry of Science and Education.




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Afanasyev M., Cervantes M., Meissner D. Towards FET Concept: Pathway to Evaluation of Foresight Effectiveness, Efficiency and Validity / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2014. No. 31/STI/2014. 
Kindras A., Meissner D., Vishnevskiy K., Cervantes M. Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2014. No. 29/STI/2014. 
Karaulova M., Shackleton O., Gök A., Kotsemir M. N., Shapira P. Nanotechnology Research and Innovation in Russia: A Bibliometric Analysis / Manchester Institute of Innovation Research. Series October 2014 "Manchester Institute of Innovation Research papers". 2014. 
Khripunova A., Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Corporate Foresight for Corporate Functions: Impacts from Purchasing Functions // Strategic Change. 2014. Vol. 23. No. 3-4. P. 147-160. 
Olson, D., Birge, J., Linton, J. Risk and Uncertainty Management in Technological Innovation // Technovation. 2014. Vol. 34. No. 8. P. 395-398. doi
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Cervantes M., Meissner D. Commercialising Public Research under the Open Innovation Model: New Trends // Форсайт. 2014. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 70-81. 
Sokolov A., Mesropyan V. R., Chulok A. Supply chain cyber security: A Russian outlook // Technovation. 2014. Vol. 34. No. 7. P. 389-391. doi
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Ефименко И. В., Хорошевский В. Ф. Формальная модель лучших практик построения дорожных карт, in: XIV Национальная конференция по искусственному интеллекту с международным участием КИИ-2014. Казань : Российская ассоциация искусственного интеллекта, 2014. С. 118-127. 
Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Integrated roadmaps and corporate foresight as tools of innovation management: The case of Russian companies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 90. P. 433-443. doi
Proskuryakova L., Meissner D., Rudnik P. A Policy Perspective On The Russian Technology Platforms / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2014. No. 26/STI/2014 .