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Development of methodology and monitoring the organization of enterprise business activity

2009

The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology to monitor the business activity of industrial enterprises on the basis of macroeconomic analysis and to make short-term forecasts using the results of selected market research.

The main tasks of this project are to present and update the methodological, technologic and analytic aspects of non-quantitative observation of the trends in short-term indicators of economic development, using the industrial sector as an example, in compliance with the requirements of current international standards, the long-term development program for the Russian statistics and socio-economic monitoring.

Market research is based on revealing the opinion of enterprises about current and future trends of business activity, factors affecting the intensity of ongoing economic processes and generally facilitating the obtaining of important short-term information for making operating decisions.

A combination of qualitative and quantitative information in joint models and calculation of respective composite indicators of business environment, including leading indicators, call for the development of special algorithms and ensuring the comparability of qualitative and quantitative data. Another key factor is the comparability of statistical indicators with the respective data from other countries and information of international organizations.

In the course of the project, we have analyzed existing approaches to measuring business activity trends, their advantages and disadvantages, we have worked out a set of tools to carry out market survey of enterprises and conducted a pilot survey and processed the results.

We used the industrial sector as an example to create a system of non-quantitative statistical indicators of the trends in the industrial behavior of economic agents that would:

  • Adapt qualitative and quantitative information about short-term business trends, ensuring their comparability and adequacy for the respective conceptual framework to widen the possibilities for short-term forecasting;
  • Ensure the integration of the offered system of qualitative indicators to qualitative statistics on federal and regional levels;
  • Ensure information comparability and representation of survey results to the European Commission and other international organizations.

The work is aimed at forming a complex approach to solving the following tasks:

  • determining the composition of the main market indicators of the current state and the change in business and consumer climate and cyclical development that lead, coincide or lag compared with actual economic development;
  • creation of composite indicators of a cyclical nature, characterizing various aspects of economic development in the country;
  • updating approaches to the analysis of relations among cyclical profiles in the changes of macroeconomic indicators and leading composite business environment indicators;
  • determining a retrospective of turning points (troughs and peaks) in socio-economic trends;
  • forecasting future turning points of cyclical development of macroeconomic indicators based on the leading composite business climate indicators.