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Regular version of the site

Russian inputs, output, and productivity in global context

Priority areas of development: economics
2015
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The project was implemented in 2015 within the Program of Fundamental Research of HSE. It continued the series of studies of economic growth of the Russian economy in the comparative perspective.

Goal of research. The aim of the project is better understanding of factors, which influence the ability of industries of the Russian economy to diminish real costs of production. In other words, the project aimed to explain what could influence multifactor productivity growth.

Methodology. Two groups of methods were implemented. The first one is based on time series econometric methods for estimation of dynamic models, using relatively short time series. The second group is non-parametric estimation of supply-side sources of growth, called "the neoclassical industry growth and level accounting".

Empirical base of research. Main data sources are official statistics provided by the Russian Statistical Office (Rosstat), including unpublished disaggregated series, and the unpublished information on details of the official methodology concerning the estimation of some important indicators. In addition, some data from alternative sources was used, such as World KLEMS (www.worldklems.net) and WIOD (www.wiod.org) datasets. In 2015 the laboratory launched the project for the analysis of sources of economic growth of the Russian economy in 19th-20th centuries. For this we use data from the archive of the Main Interregional Information Processing Centre of Rosstat, which was partially published by the laboratory in 2009-2010.

Results of research. The first study within the project compares the dynamics and the structure of sources of economic growth at the level of industries both in Russia and in Central and East post-transition economies, using industry growth accounting approach. It was found that the contribution of multifactor productivity (MFP) to growth rates of the Russian economy is not as large as it has been presented in the literature. According to the present study, MFP contribution explains only half of real value added of the Russian economy. It was also found that the contribution of capital input was higher than reported the literature. The second study of the project is focused on compilation of the time series of Supply and Use Tables of the Russian economy starting from 1995. The study considers current practices of compilation of long consistent time series. It discusses requirements to the relevant media for keeping this information, and suggests practical steps for further improvements. Using the newly developed historical data, the laboratory provides first estimations of sources of economic growth for Russian Manufacturing starting form 1961. Preliminary estimations show that the existing understanding of growth before transition, as extensive, and after transition, as intensive, should be revised. Finally, the study of productivity of Russian noble estates in the Ryazan province in 1827, joint with Source Studies Centre of the Faculty of Humanities, suggests a new explanation, why productivity of diminishing estates could raise.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results. The present project provides a unique empirical base for applied analytical studies and economic policy making. The Russia KLEMS dataset attracted interest of the Conference Board the Conference Board (http://www.conference-board.org/), Institute of Economies in Transition of the Bank of Finland BOFIT (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/bofit/Pages/default.aspx), OECD (http://www.oecd.org/) and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (http://www.wiiw.ac.at/).

Results of this project can be used for economic policy making, improvements of the official statistics methodology and for teaching.

The laboratory also provides expert examination services for such government authorities as Economic Council of the President, the Bank of Russia, Rosstat, and the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

 

Publications:


de Vries G. J., Erumban A. A., Timmer M. P., Voskoboynikov I., Wu H. X. Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural Transformation and Aggregate Productivity Growth, in: Structural Change and Industrial Development in the BRICS. NY : Oxford University Press, 2015. Ch. 3. P. 66-91.
Корчмина Е. С., Воскобойников И. Б. Могло ли измельчание помещичьих хозяйств в конце XVIII – начале XIX вв. сделать их более производительными? // В кн.: Русь, Россия: Средневековье и Новое время. Вып. 4. Четвертые чтения памяти академика РАН Л.В.Милова. Материалы международной научной конференции. Москва, 26 октября – 1 ноября 2015 г. М. : [б.и.], 2015. С. 458-464.
Bhattarai S., Eggertsson G., Gafarov B. Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing / National Bureau of Economic Research. Series NBER Working Paper 2015. No. 21336.
Радыгин А. Д., Simachev Y. V., Entov R. M. The state-owned company: “State failure” or “market failure”? / Пер. с рус. // Russian Journal of Economics. 2015. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 55-80. doi
Энтов Р. М., Луговой О. В. Тенденции экономического роста в России после 1998 года // В кн.: Алексеев М., Вебер Ш. (ред.) Экономика России. Оксфордский сборник. – М.: Издательство Института Гайдара, 2015. Книга 1. Кн. 1: Экономика России. Оксфордский сборник. М. : Издательство Института Гайдара, 2015.
Шоломицкая Е. В. Корпоративный долговой навес и инвестиции в российской экономике: роль финансовых условий и участия государства / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2015. № 4.
Орлова Н. В., Егиев С. К. Структурные факторы замедления роста российской экономики // Вопросы экономики. 2015. № 12
The World Economy. Growth or Stagnation?. Cambridge University Press, 2016.
Dementiev Andrei, Loboyko Anfisa. Organisational choice in the public sector, in: XV Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4-х книгах / Отв. ред.: Е. Г. Ясин. Кн. 1. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. P. 251-258.
Dementiev Andrei. Strategic partnerships in local public transport // Research in Transportation Economics. 2016. Vol. 59. No. November. P. 65-74. doi