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Demographic trends in Russia and in the OECD countries: comparative analysis and implications for policy

Priority areas of development: sociology
2015
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Subject of the study: Modern and prospective demographic situation in Russia, long-term trends in the major demographic processes - fertility, mortality, migration, changes in population size and in structural characteristics of the population - and the possible impacts of conjunctural and fundamental demographic changes on economic and social development of the country.

Goal of the research: Comprehensive study of the historic and more recent demographic trends in Russia within the context of long-term trends in developed countries (OECD countries) aimed at identifying general and specific features in the demographic evolution at different stages of the convergent-divergent process.

Methodology.  The methodological basis of the research is the Demographic Transition theory, including its more detailed specifications ("epidemiological transition", "second" and "third" demographic transitions). We use and develop  ideas about the demographic transition as a modernization of the specific demographic system, which, in turn, is seen against the background of economic and socio-cultural changes that demonstrate universal as well as nationally specific nature. This approach provides a basis for understanding the demographic shifts of recent decades both in view of global trends and the country specific development in Russia and the former Soviet Union in the twentieth century during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, and opens the way to understanding the demographic and socio-economic prospects of the country and its regions .

In this study, classical methods of statistical and demographic analysis are widely used: the system of general and specific rates and indicators to estimate the intensity of demographic events, life tables, including life tables by cause of death, fertility tables by birth order, the characteristics of the quantum and timing for births, marriages, divorces abortions and some other socio-demographic events.

Of important methodological significance in the analysis and prediction of the demographic changes is a cohort approach, which not only provides a clearer understanding of the historical societal and demographic changes, but also allows to distinguish long-term changes from temporal, conjectural fluctuations of demographic indicators.

Empirical base of the study. This study is based on:

  • Official statistical data provided by ROSSTAT, including the results of 2010 Census and previous population censuses and microcensuses; detailed data from the annual vital and migration statistics reports, the annual estimates of population size and age and sex composition of population, results of population projections, results of representative sample surveys such as “Reproductive Health Survey”, “Survey on Life Conditions”, “Employment Survey” and some others;
  • statistical data provided by Russia’s Federal Ministries and Agencies: Ministry of Public Health, Ministry of Interior Affairs, Ministry of Labour and Social Development, The Federal Migration Service, Social Insurance Fund;
  • International comparative data of the sample surveys carried out in Russia, in particular, data from three waves of the panel study "Parents and children, men and women in family and society"/RusGGS (2004, 2007 and 2011); data from "Russian longitudinal monitoring survey of the economic situation and health»/RLMS; “European Social Survey”/RusESS and others;
  • HSE IDEM Demographic Database that has been created and is supported by  Institute of Demography of Higher School of Economics, and which contains long series of data for Russia and 40 European and non-European developed countries;
  • International demographic databases: United Nations, WHO, OECD, EuroStat, Human Mortality Database, Human Fertility Database, INED Demographic Database and others;
  • Data from national statistical offices of the OECD and CIS countries.

Key results of the research include:

  • Generalization of Russia's historical and prospective demographic trends within the international context as a result of the identification of universal and specific features of the evolution of the demographic system in Russia;
  • Analytical characteristics of componentsof thepopulation size changes in Russian Federationand its regions, changesin the spatial distribution ofthe Russia’s populationand itsurban and ruralcomponentson the basisof longtime seriesof vital statistics and migration data within the international context;
  • Analyticalcharacteristics of the development of population ageing in Russia in comparison with OECD countries;
  • Results of analysis of the latest trendsin family formation and dissolution of marital unions and non-marital partnershipsin Russiain the context oflong-term processes in OECD countries;
  • Updated results of analysis of trends in period and cohort fertility indicators and structural characteristics of fertility, and their response to the pronatalist policy interventions in Russia within the international context;
  • Analytical review of the situation in family planning and prevalence of abortion in Russia in comparison with OECD countries;
  • Findings of an in-depth analysis of the long-term and short-term changes in mortality and life expectancy in Russia, evaluation of contribution of specific age groups and specific causes of deaths to these processes within the wider international context;
  • Inclusion to the national and international academic information turnover of new data relating to international and internal migration in Russia within the context of trends observed in OECD and CIS countries;
  • Evaluation of the existing systems of state support for families and migration policies in the different countries of the world with an emphasis on the OECD countries;
  • Analysis of the latest demographic projections for the OECD countries.

Implementation of the results. In 2015, the results of research studies conducted by HSE IDEM in the field of demographic analysis and projections were used by Rosstat in the refinement of the official demographic projections for the period up to 2050. The results of the studies are used at a regular base by Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Labour and Social Development, the Federal Migration Service to develop the socio-demographic, family and migration policies. Methodological approaches that have been developed in this project are actively used by Rosstat, in order to improve the statistical monitoring of demographic and migration processes, assessments of the indicators characterizing the demographic situation and its change, in the analysis of the results of the National Population Census and national socio-demographic sample surveys.

International demographic database, supported by HSE IDEM which is actively used in this study is freely available on the Internet and is widely used at all levels of the Russian government, for scientific and educational purposes as well as in the electronic and print media in Russia and abroad.

The results were presented at international conferences, including the International Conference on Population Geographies 2015 «The Spatial Dimensions of Population» (Brisbane, Australia, June 30 - July 3, 2015), Population Association of America 2015 Annual Meeting (San Diego, USA, 30 April – 2 May, 2015); International Seminar "The demographic theory and demographic history: from description to explanation", organized by HSE IDEM (Moscow, 22-23 October 2015), and others. They will be well represented at the forthcoming HSE XVIIth April International Conference on problems of economic and social development (19-22 April 2016).

The research results have been used as part of a large international project «Fertility and Family Policies in Central and Eastern Europe» with the participation of representatives from more than 20 countries, performed under the coordination of the University of Oxford (UK) (See: Fertility and Family Policies in Central and Eastern Europe. Working papers by Department of Social Policy and Intervention. University of Oxford (UK). Series "Barnet Papers in Social Research". 2015. No. 15-01 (9).) The results are regularly published in scientific domestic and foreign journals, and in particular, in the ‘Demographic Review’ Journal and in electronic periodical ‘Demoscope-Weekly’ both published by HSE IDEM.

Results of the study are reflected in the scientific report, "Social policy: long-term trends and changes in recent years", prepared by a large group of academic staff of the Higher School of Economics (Project leaders: J.I. Kuz'minov, L.N. Ovcharova, L.I. Yakobson).

In the most complete form results of the study will be published in the book "The Population of Russia 2014" (HSE Publishers, 2016).

The results of the study are reflected in the teaching activities, including "Demography," "Population and Development" master's programs in HSE, and in the short-term international courses for advanced demographic analysis and socio-economic development, organized with the support of UNFPA for administrations, state statistics officers, experts and researchers in population studies,  employees of international organizations from the CIS countries (September 2015).

Area of application

The results of the study are recommended for use:

  • in the activities of the executive branches on the federal and regional level to improve the depth and quality of monitoring demographic processes, to improve the system of criteria and indicators used to characterize the population and analyze the effectiveness of public policy;
  • in the work of the supreme bodies of state administration, ministries and departments responsible for the strategic development of family, health and migration policies;
  • to improve the content of educational socio-demographic programs for bachelor and master students in HSE and in other secondary and higher education establishments in Russia, and in universities in CIS and Euro-Asian Countries. 

Publications:


Сороко Е. Л. Показатели для описания этнодемографических процессов // В кн.: XVI Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4 кн. / Отв. ред.: Е. Г. Ясин. Кн. 3. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. С. 328-338.
Щербакова Е. М. Численность и размещение населения // В кн.: Население России 2014. Двадцать второй ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. Гл. 1. С. 10-46.
Rosenberg D., Kozlov V. A. Institutional Deficit and Health Outcomes in Post-Communist States / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2015. No. 25/PS/2015.
Anatoly Vishnevsky, Jasilioniene A., Kotowska I., Krimer B., Kurylo I., Maslauskaite A., von der Lippe E., Muresan C., Pronko T., Puur A., Rasevic M., Sakkeus L., Sambt J., Sobotka T., Frejka T., Basten S., Šprocha B., Stankuniene V., Šťastná A., Stropnik N., Zeman K., Zvidrins P., Zakharov S. V. Fertility and Family Policies in Central and Eastern Europe / University of Oxford. Series "Barnet Papers in Social Research". 2015. No. 15-01 (9).
Сакевич В. И. ВИЧ/СПИД в Европе - 2013 // Демоскоп Weekly. 2015. № 627-628
Николаюк Е. А. Самооценка здоровья и самосохранительное поведение сельских жителей и дачников Костромской области // Электронный научный журнал "Социальные аспекты здоровья населения". 2015. № 3
Абылкаликов С. И. Типологический анализ регионов России по миграционным характеристикам // Региональная экономика: теория и практика. 2015. Т. 22. № 397. С. 21-30.
Захаров С. В. Брачность и разводимость // В кн.: Население России 2014. Двадцать второй ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. Гл. 3. С. 71-112.
Авдеева А., Жабенко А., Сорайнен А., Isupova O. G. Traditionalismi nykypäivän perhekeskusteluissa Venäjällä // Kasvatus ja Aika. 2016. No. 10(1) . P.  72-86.
Тимонин С. А. Эволюция смертности от новообразований в России и развитых странах // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. С. 224-236.
Абылкаликов С. И. Перепись как источник данных о внутренней миграции в Индии // В кн.: Географы в годы войны и мира. М. : Перо, 2015. С. 732-738.
Ракша А. И. Прогнозирование рождаемости в России по методу исторических аналогов в развитых странах с использованием понятия второго демографического перехода // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2016
Абылкаликов С. И. Изучение миграционных процессов в переписях населения в разных странах мира // В кн.: Социально-политические и эколого-хозяйственные проблемы развития Балтийского региона. Псков : Издательство Псковского государственного университета, 2015. С. 99-106.
Вишневский А. Г., Захаров С. В., Исупова О. Г., Сакевич В. И. Рождаемость // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. Гл. 3. С. 81-181.
Ревич Б. А., Харькова Т. Л., Кваша Е. А., Богоявленский Д. Д., Коровкин А. Г., Королев И. Б. Демографические процессы, динамика трудовых ресурсов и риски здоровью населения. М. : ЛЕНАНД, 2015.
Зайончковская Ж. А., Карачурина Л. Б., Мкртчян Н. В., Флоринская Ю. Ф., Доронина К. А. Миграция населения // В кн.: Население России 2014. Двадцать второй ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. Гл. 6. С. 288-332.
Васин С. А., Кваша Е. А., Рамонов А. В., Харькова Т. Л. Здоровье населения // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. Гл. 5. С. 274-295.
Николаюк Е. А., Фаттахов Т. А. Ценностные ориентиры как фактор рискового поведения молодежи // Евразийский юридический журнал. 2015. № 8
Щербакова Е. М. Численность и размещение населения // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. С. 10-51.
Вишневский А. Г., Захаров С. В. Заключение // В кн.: Население России 2014. Двадцать второй ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. Гл. 7. С. 333-353.
Андрущак Г. В., Денисенко М. Б., Козлов В. А., Синявская О. В. Социально-экономические последствия демографических тенденций в России // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. Гл. 7. С. 358-406.
Андреев Е. М., Кваша Е. А., Харькова Т. Л., Тимонин С. А. Смертность и продолжительность жизни // В кн.: Население России 2013: двадцать первый ежегодный демографический доклад / Рук.: С. В. Захаров, А. Г. Вишневский; отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015. Гл. 4. С. 182-273.
Захаров С. В., Исупова О. Г., Сакевич В. И., Ракша А. И. Рождаемость // В кн.: Население России 2014. Двадцать второй ежегодный демографический доклад / Отв. ред.: С. В. Захаров. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. Гл. 4. С. 113-196.
Карачурина Л. Б., Мкртчян Н. В. Региональные центры России в фокусе миграции // В кн.: Вопросы географии / Отв. ред.: В. Котляков, В. Н. Стрелецкий, О. Б. Глезер, С. Г. Сафронов. Т. 141: Проблемы регионального развития России . М. : Издательский дом «Кодекс», 2016. С. 209-233.
Victoria Sakevich, Denisov B. Birth Control in Russia. A Swaying Population Policy, in: »Wenn die Chemie stimmt …«. Geschlechterbeziehungen und Geburtenplanung im Zeitalter der »Pille«. Göttingen : Wallstein Verlag, 2016. P. 245-268.
Сакевич В. И. Проблемы внутрисемейного регулирования рождаемости: Россия и страны ОЭСР // В кн.: Рождаемость и планирование семьи: мнения, установки, мотивация. Серия «Качественные исследования в экономике и демографии» / Под общ. ред.: И. Е. Калабихина, И. А. Троицкая. Вып. 10. М. : Экономический факультет МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова, 2016. С. 55-66.
Сакевич В. И. От аборта к контрацепции // Демоскоп Weekly. 2016. № 687-688. С. 1-18.
Абанкина И. В., Абанкина Т. В., Акиндинова Н. В., Бирюкова С. С., Вишневский А. Г., Денисенко М. Б., Дерзкова Н. П., Деркачев П. В., Дудырев Ф. Ф., Захаров С. В., Исупова О. Г., Капелюшников Р. И., Кондрашов Н. В., Косарева Н. Б., Косарецкий С. Г., Кузьминов Я. И., Куренной В. А., Куштанина Е. В., Мерцалова Т. А., Мкртчян Н. В., Овчарова Л. Н., Ощепков А. Ю., Пинская М. А., Полиди Т. Д., Прокопов Ф. Т., Пузанов А. С., Рудник Б. Л., Семенов Д. С., Синявская О. В., Фрумин И. Д., Чернявский А. В., Шишкин С. В., Якобсон Л. И. Социальная политика: долгосрочные тенденции и изменения последних лет. Краткая версия доклада [Текст] : докл. к XVI Апр. междунар. науч. конф. по проблемам развития экономики и общества / Отв. ред.: Я. И. Кузьминов, Л. Н. Овчарова, Л. И. Якобсон. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015.