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Monitoring of risks of socio-political destabilization in the "Afro-Asian" zone of instability

Priority areas of development: humanitarian
2015
Department: Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Goal of research: system monitoring and analysis of social and political transformation in the context of destabilizing processes, prediction on this basis of social and political development of the countries, the subsequent development of practical recommendations for overcoming or avoiding social and political instability, as well as actions of Russian state authorities and Russian organizations in the potential destabilization.

Methodology: the project is based on structural-functional approach (it implicates consideration of the political sphere as a whole system that has a complex structure, each element of which has a specific purpose and performs particular functions to meet the relevant requirements of the system and its expectations) that allows predicting the post-crisis socio-political transformations.

The main research method is a systematic method based on the modern theory of political systems. In addition, situational analysis, methods of political sociology, as well as the essential elements of the political and historical, political and philosophical approaches will also be used in the study.

Empirical base of research:the empirical base of research is a combination of field research data collected during the trips to Egypt, Morocco and Yemen, the statistics of the League of Arab States, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, United Nations Population Division, as well as news reports of Arab, Russian and international news agencies.

Research results:

  1. The analysis and systematization of factors of international political development in the Middle East are carried out.
  2. The specificity of risks and threats to the growth of social and political instability in the area being analyzed in the context of the evolution of Afro-Asiatic macro zone of instability is identified.
  3. The adaptation of teaching and methodological foundations of the research to the study of international political development in the conditions of instability and crisis of the ruling regimes in the Middle East is made.
  4. The factors and mechanisms of the genesis of the civil war in Syria are revealed.
  5. The factors and mechanisms of the genesis of the civil war in Yemen are identified.
  6. The factors and mechanisms of formation of an Islamic state are revealed.
  7. The trends in the development of socio-political organization of the Islamic state are traced.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

  1. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the framework of the project in 2015 particular attention was paid to the analysis of the prospects and limits of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Arab Republic of Egypt, as well as to the existing potential for development of bilateral relations in the most important areas for both countries. A round table discussion titled "Cooperation between Russia and Egypt: bilateral and regional dimensions" with the participation of leading experts in the field of Oriental Studies, economists, diplomats and specialists in the military-technical cooperation from both Russia and Egypt, etc., was held in Moscow. According to the results of the discussion, there were developed practical recommendations for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in order to better use the potential of the development of bilateral relations available to the Russian Federation and the Arab Republic of Egypt.
  2. Committees of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. In the course of the field of researches in the Syrian Arab Republic, the Republic of Yemen and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in 2015 the interviews with the representatives of political power, the scientific expert and business community of these countries were collected and processed. Respondents expressed the most promising ideas on specific areas of cooperation and ways of eliminating the existing barriers that were considered in the preparation of practical recommendations for the development of Russian-Yemeni / Russian-Syrian and Russian-Afghan relations which were submitted to the relevant committees of the State Duma.
  3. Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, the Expert Council of the Government of the Russian Federation, Business Russia.The laboratory participated in the preparation of the "Action Plan for implementation in 2016-2010 the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation until 2015 ".

Publications:


Исаев Л. М., Коротаев А. В. Йемен: неизвестная революция и международный конфликт // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2015. № 8. С. 71-81.
Коротаев А. В., Исаев Л. М., Руденко М. А. Формирование афразийской зоны нестабильности // Восток. Афро-Азиатские общества: история и современность. 2015. № 2. С. 88-99.
Гринин Л. Е., Следзевский И. В., Труевцев К. М., Коротаев А. В., Исаев Л. М., Руденко М. А., Кадырбаев А. Ш., Малков С., Медушевский Н., Шишкина А. Р. Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. Е. Гринин, Л. М. Исаев, А. Р. Шишкина. Вып. 5. Волгоград : Учитель, 2014.
Акаев А. А., Андреев А. И., Бондаренко В. М., Гринин Л. Е., Джамакеев У. Т., Дубовский С., Зинькина Ю. В., Коротаев А. В., Малков А. С., Малков С., Махов С. А., Мельянцев В. А., Пантин В. И., Старков Н. И., Чернавский Д. С. Краткосрочные и долгосрочные угрозы и риски России в условиях обострения международных отношений и пути их минимизации Стратегический анализ / Отв. ред.: С. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев. М. : Учитель, 2015.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Devezas T. C. Cyclical Dynamics in Economics and Politics in the Past and in the Future, in: Kondratieff waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff / Ed. by L. E. Grinin, T. C. Devezas, A. Korotayev. Volgograd : ., 2014. P. 5-24.
Акаев А. А. Моделирование влияния энергоресурсов на динамику мирового развития // В кн.: Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели / Отв. ред.: В. А. Садовничий, А. А. Акаев, С. Ю. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин. М. : Учитель, 2015. Гл. 1. С. 14-34.
Малков С. Ю., Кирилюк И. Л. Базовая модель социальных взаимодействий // В кн.: Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели / Отв. ред.: В. А. Садовничий, А. А. Акаев, С. Ю. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин. М. : Учитель, 2015. С. 78-93.
Малков С. Ю., Авинова А. Н. Моделирование как инструмент поддержки принятия решений: сравнительный анализ методов // В кн.: Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели / Отв. ред.: В. А. Садовничий, А. А. Акаев, С. Ю. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин. М. : Учитель, 2015. С. 147-180.
Гринин Л. Е., Коротаев А. В. Дефляция как болезнь современных развитых стран // В кн.: Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели / Отв. ред.: В. А. Садовничий, А. А. Акаев, С. Ю. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин. М. : Учитель, 2015. С. 242-271.
Исаев Л. М., Коротаев А. В. Политическая география современного Египта // Полис. Политические исследования. 2015. № 2. С. 117-136.
Korotayev A., Goldstone J., Zinkina J. V. Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 95. No. June 01. P. 163-169. doi
Grinin L. E., Grinin A. L. The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution, in: Kondratieff waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff / Ed. by L. E. Grinin, T. C. Devezas, A. Korotayev. Volgograd : ., 2014. P. 354-377.
Малков С. Ю., Билюга С. Э., Малков Д. С. Моделирование политических взаимодействий // В кн.: Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели / Отв. ред.: В. А. Садовничий, А. А. Акаев, С. Ю. Малков, Л. Е. Гринин. М. : Учитель, 2015. С. 120-146.
Demerath L., Korotayev A. The Importance of Gossip Across Societies: Correlations with Institutionalization // Cross-Cultural Research. 2015. Vol. 49. No. 3. P. 297-314. doi
Korotayev A., Khaltourina D. Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013 // Alcohol and Alcoholism. 2015. Vol. 50. No. 5. P. 588-601.
Следзевский И. В. Риски быстрых и неконтролируемых мировых изменений как проблема мировой политики и научного знания // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков / Отв. ред.: А. В. Коротаев, Л. М. Исаев, А. Р. Шишкина, Б. А. Акаева. М. : ЛЕНАНД, 2013. С. 11-94.