The study was focused on six key research areas:
- Разработка методологической базы для кратко- и среднесрочного прогнозирования показателей сферы научных исследований и разработок (ИР).
- Recommendations for applying methods of "weak signals" and "wild cards" identification for solving tasks of science and technology (S&T) foresight.
- Development of methodological approaches to regional Foresight studies.
- Development of a toolkit for science and technology priority-setting by big companies.
- Assessing the prospects and potential effects of wide renewable energy technologies application on green economy.
- Patent-based analysis of trends, prospects and problems of medical technologies in Russia.
Development of methodological framework for the short- and medium-term forecasting of research and development (R&D) indicators
The study is focused on Russia’s research and development. The research goal is to develop a methodological framework for the short- and medium-term forecasting of R&D indicators.
This goal was achieved though analysis and application of the following methods: trend extrapolation, expert opinions analysis, and regression models. The empirical base of the research costs of the following sources: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) Science, Technology and Innovation database (full dataset), OECD.Stat (Science Technology and Patents section), Eurostat (Science and Technology section), and HSE Information-analytical system "Statistics and monitoring of Economics of knowledge: science, innovation, education, information society".
The outcome of the study is a system of interconnected models for short and medium-term forecasting of aggregate R&D indicators. Moreover, an assessment of the condition, opportunities and weaknesses of the Russian information base for the development of short and medium-term R&D indicators; future time series and dynamics of R&D indicators for Russia were calculated.
Based on methodology used in surveys of company CEOs on the future developments of their research activity, analyzed in this study, it would be possible to develop a methodology for surveys of R&D performing organizations to assess the dynamics of their short-term key performance indicators.
Recommendations for applying methods of "weak signals" and "wild cards" identification for solving tasks of S&T foresight
The study was focused on approaches to S&T foresight. The purpose of this study was to develop recommendations on the use of “weak signals” and “wild cards” to meet the challenges of S&T foresight. This paper analyzes possibilities of integration of “weak signals” and “wild cards” in the foresight methodology based on a review of best international practices. The proposed recommendations were tested with a case-study on the prospects of bioprinting technologies.
As a result of the study it is shown that methodology for identification of “weak signals” and “wild cards” is reasonably used for solving several foresight tasks: analysis of external factors influencing the subject area, analysis of key alternatives in the scenario development, identification and analysis of emerging technologies. In particular, weak signals can be used in the roadmapping for developing future vision and deeper understanding of trends, drivers and barriers, as well as for analysis of the socio-economic context. In the process of critical technologies selection it is advisable to use “weak signals” and “wild cards” for assessing the prospects of selected technologies.
The study results could be used for advancing the long-term S&T foresight methodology. Overall, it is recommended to apply “weak signals” and “wild cards” methods at early stages of such projects during scenarios development and identification of key trends.
Development of methodological approaches to regional Foresight studies
The study is focused on the approaches to science and technology (S&T) foresight at the regional level. Its goal is to develop methodology for regional foresight studies. In order to achieve this goal the following methods were used: regional foresight case studies from different countries, quantitative and qualitative methods, and comparative analysis.
Empirical base of the study consists of 87 publications, dozens of foresight cases, when the studies were successfully implemented at the level of macro-regions, regions, clusters and cities.
The main outcomes include a methodological framework for regional foresight studies (at macro-regions, regions, cities and clusters) that contribute to the foresight theoretical base. An algorithm for the development of roadmaps for innovative regional clusters that may contribute to their strategy design was suggested.
Methodological approaches to regional Foresight may be used for long-term future research at the level of individual regions and macro-regions. The approach to roadmapping for clusters may be employed for the development of strategies for innovative territorial clusters (established with the support of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation), and within the framework of strategic research for industrial clusters (supported by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation).
Development of a toolkit for science and technology (S&T) priority-setting by big companies
The study is focused on the S&T priority-setting by big companies. The goal of the study is to develop a toolkit for determining the S&T priorities by big companies.
The methods used are matrix approach, system analysis, and foresight methods and tools. Empirical base includesdata on 63 technologies developed by a big energy company.
The study outcomes include a methodology for determining the S&T priorities for big companies based on the analysis of the current level of its technological competences and their market applications. The advantage of this methodology is the use of a large number of criteria for defining the level of scientific and technological capacities of a company, including the comparison with the best comparable Russian and foreign producers, as well as criteria related to demand for company’s technologies.
Recommendations on further development of the most promising technologies of a big company are based on the analysis of two integral indices: technological competences and market potential of the company. Suggested methodological approaches were already applied in an HSE study on the identification of S&T priority areas of a large energy company. The results may also be used by big companies to adjust their S&T priorities and the revise their innovation programs.
Assessing the prospects and potential effects of wide renewable energy technologies application on green economy
The study was focused on the organizations, performing research and development of renewable energy technologies, producers of renewables-based electrical and heating energy, as well as producers and consumers associations.
The goal of the study was to assess the prospects and potential effects for a wider application of new renewable energy technologies on the green economy. The study focused on three renewable energy technology areas – photovoltaic converters with high efficiency factor and long operational life, direct solar radiation heating systems and solar concentrating systems.
Methodology of the study includes analysis of foresight reports, studies and publications on the prospects for renewables in Russia and globally; interviews with the Russian experts, including the experts from the Russian energy foresight center; analysis of national strategic and regulatory documents that stipulate government policy measures to support renewables. The empirical base of the study includes research papers indexed in the major international databases, national strategy and regulatory documents, data and analytical material of the Russian sectoral (energy) foresight centers.
The outcomes of the study include methodology for identification of medium and long-term social and economic effects from application of renewable technologies, and testing this methodology on analyzing the application of three technologies in Russia. The suggested methodology may be used by government decision-makers for the development of energy and S&T policies, and assessing the social, economic and environmental effects of these policies. The outcomes were tested in several HSE studies implemented for the Russian Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Education and Science.
Patent-based analysis of trends, prospects and problems of medical technologies in Russia
The study is focused on the Russian medical technologies market. Its goal was to study state-of-the-art and future developments of medical technologies in Russia with a use of patent analyses methods.
In order to achieve this goal the main method applied was quantitative analysis of patent activity indicators, such as number of patent applications, share of resident and non-resident applications, etc. The empirical basis consisted of was information derived from the new patent database developed in the course of the project, and a number of existing statistical databases and official reports (OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, registry of the Russian Patent Office - Rospatent, World Intellectual Property Organization database).
The research project has both empirical and methodological outputs. First, an overview of the current trends characterizing the development of medical technologies in Russia was made with the use patent analysis that may be used for further studies of this area. Secondly, an algorithm for patent-based analysis of technological development and an approach to statistical operationalization of ‘medical technologies’ were developed. Thirdly, a patent database was formed for science of science studies.