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Factors of long-term Russian economic development in global context

Priority areas of development: economics
2016
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The project was implemented in 2016 within the Program of Fundamental Research of HSE. It continued the series of studies of economic growth of the Russian economy in the comparative perspective.

Goal of research. The aim of the project is determination of change in the structure of sources of long-term growth of the Russian economy.

Methodology. The research methodology is based on the use of modern econometric methods focused on the construction of dynamic models using relatively short and not always stationary time series. The research methodology is also based on a system of industry accounts of economic growth and on the comparison of the levels of total factor productivity. To carry out the work time series of economic indices are built that allow to analyze the various aspects of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics. The research methodology is based on international standards of construction of systems of national accounts, including the system of "input-output" tables, and mathematical models of inter-industry linkages. The work is based on theoretical approaches developed in the framework of the neoclassical paradigm of decomposition of economic growth and the theory of the index-numbers in comparison of the levels of total factor productivity. These approaches are developed to reflect the transformation and post-transformation specific nature.

Empirical base of research. Main data sources are official statistics provided by the Russian Statistical Office (Rosstat), as well as disaggregated data. It is essential to use extensive information about the details of construction technique of appropriate indicators. In addition, where necessary, an alternative indicators of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics and the data from alternative sources (including own estimates) are used. Enhanced understanding of the structure and dynamics of the sources of economic growth in Russia as compared to the literature is provided by the higher level of detail of industries, a significant expansion of the analysis period, primarily due to several decades of a planned economy, as well as comparisons at the level of industries with a large number of countries.

Results of research. Analysis of the relationship between structural changes in employment and productivity dynamics of the Russian economy is conducted. The relationship between investment, production, loans to non-financial corporations from the Russian banking sector, external corporate debt, short-term interest rate and the real exchange rate of the ruble using structural vector autoregression model with constraints on the sign is analyzed. The relationship between investment in physical capital and new investments in the acquisition of companies is considered. A measurement problem of Russian inflation, leading to distortions in the representation of economic agents about the development of the economic situation, and the losses generated by these mis-measurement is analyzed. Analysis of uncertainty shocks as a possible source of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations is conducted. The method of analysis of structural decomposition that allows determining the sources of changes in output and imports of goods and services in the dynamics is considered. Comparison of mathematical methods for constructing time series of system of "input-output" tables using extensive statistical material is conducted. The method of temporal disaggregation of interval dynamic series on the basis of high-frequency indicators, and the principle of conservation of motion is proposed.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results. The present project provides a unique empirical base for applied analytical studies and economic policy making. The Russia KLEMS dataset attracted interest of the Conference Board the Conference Board (http://www.conference-board.org/), Institute of Economies in Transition of the Bank of Finland BOFIT (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/bofit/Pages/default.aspx), OECD (http://www.oecd.org/) and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (http://www.wiiw.ac.at/).

Results of this project can be used for economic policy making, improvements of the official statistics methodology and for teaching.

The laboratory also provides expert examination services for such government authorities as Economic Council of the President, the Bank of Russia, Rosstat, and the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, et al.

Publications:


Шоломицкая Е. В. Инвестиции в новый капитал и сделки поглощений: случай российских публичных корпораций // Экономическая политика. 2017. Т. 12. № 1. С. 226-249. doi
Шоломицкая Е. В. Корпоративный долговой навес и инвестиции в российской экономике // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2016. Т. 20. № 2. С. 337-365.
Baranov E. F., Kim I., Piontkovski D., Staritsyna E. A. The Problem of Constructing Time Series of Russian Input-Output Accounts for Use in International Projects, in: XVI Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4 кн. / Отв. ред.: Е. Г. Ясин. Кн. 1. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. P. 456-463.
Egiev S. On Persistence of Uncertainty Shocks / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2016.
Кузнецов С. Ю., Пионтковский Д. И., Соколов Д. Д., Старчикова О. С. Эмпирическое сравнение математических методов построения динамических рядов системы таблиц «затраты-выпуск» // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2016. Т. 20. № 4
Воскобойников И. Б., Корчмина Е. С. XVII Международный конгресс по экономической истории в Киото и вечные надежды на улучшение климата в российской науке // В кн.: Экономическая история: Ежегодник. 2014/15 / Отв. ред.: Л. И. Бородкин, Ю. А. Петров. М. : Институт российской истории РАН, 2016. С. 613-619.
Timmer M., Voskoboynikov I. Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends in 1995–2012, in: Jorgenson, D., Timmer M.P., Fukao K. (eds.) Growth and Stagnation in the World Economy. Cambridge University Press, 2016.. Cambridge University Press, 2016. P. 281-318.