Goal of research: Identification of causal relationships in macroeconomics between the energy and gas prices and investment, inflation and industrial output. Their quantitative assessment
Methodology: econometric modeling, including the expansion of the production function for the energy, the VAR model, cointegration model, error correction model and correlation analysis on the basis of causal tests and cyclic correlation analysis
Empirical base of research: National statistical agencies (Rosstat, Eurostat, etc.), companies data (Gazprom, BP), databases of international organizations (OECD, World Bank, etc.)
Results of research: Causal tests in this study permitted us to analyze the effects of short-term dynamics of energy prices exerted on GDP and inflation figures. In Russia, this effect between 1992 and 2015. It was quite pronounced (GDP: 10.71; CPI: 7.4). The analysis of cyclical correlations yielded coefficients of correlation between the cyclical components of energy prices and the cyclical components of other time series. Russian inflation in the period under review showed a constant average and weak pro-cyclical relationship. The cointegration models built for the index of consumer inflation, the impact of rising rates is not significant. error correction equations is sometimes possible to obtain meaningful estimates which show that an increase of 1% on the wholesale price of gas response can be up to 0.05%, while the electricity price increase - up to 0.05-0.1%. With the help of the econometric model based on the production function, we could not get statistically significant results when using data on prices (tariffs) for gas (-0,027; p = 0,18) and electricity (-0,03; p = 0,26 ) on the domestic market in view of a temporary trend. And, in our opinion, the most likely explanation is that these prices (tariffs) is always set at a fairly low level and have never been so great to have a real impact on the level of investment in the country. The regulator is making significant efforts to smooth the effects of their changes. However, significant results can be obtained using as input variables, energy prices in world markets, or Russian export prices of natural gas and crude oil. However, their contribution to the change in the volume of industrial production and investment is relatively small. In addition, a fairly large negative constant in the equation indicates a threshold when the impact is being felt on the price index of investment. The index of energy prices in foreign markets has a positive effect expected from the correctional lag of two to three quarters. A significant amount of turns and the taxes paid in the current quarter, which also has a significant lag variable (-4 quarter). And, finally, the level of income received by the firm, has the fastest effect on the volume of current investment. Using the calculation method leads to a higher impact of the results of tariffs for electricity and gas to consumer inflation. Thus, according to the results of calculations using this method over the period from 2000 to 2015. This contribution amounted to an average of 1.2-2.5%, and in 2015 its share had fallen to 0.4%. The volume of investments into the fixed capital contribution to the infrastructure of the fuel and energy companies was about - 13-16%, and in GDP - 5-6%. Analysis of the regional differences in energy prices, competitiveness and economic effects showed that Russian hard going through this crisis due to structural problems, poor quality of public administration, especially in the area of public finance, and the presence of a number of rigid mechanisms of the economy - among the major exporters only Russia and Venezuela have not yet got rid of the pronounced negative effects of price shocks. The degree of sensitivity of the economy associated with the majority of researchers level of energy efficiency. In Russia, one of the factors of competitiveness of the industry is often referred to cheap energy, but, if so, the increase in energy efficiency is the basis of competitive advantages in the economy at the state level buduschego.Realizuemye support activities to improve energy efficiency today include a variety of control and monitoring mechanisms (required energy audit, to take into account energy requirements, minimum energy standards, targets, etc.), information support, as well as on energy efficiency requirements for public procurement. But these mechanisms in practice, promote energy efficiency only where energy efficiency processes bring economic benefits to the company and the investor level. The cost of fuel (gas) and energy account for more than 7-8% in the structure of industry costs, the largest consumers of gas and electricity is very Energy, export-oriented firms, construction and transport. For example, a gas component in the price of electricity is 35-40%, and 25-26% of heat. In the production of building materials (eg cement), the proportion of costs attributable to the energy consumption of over 28%. Export-oriented industries (metallurgy, chemical industry, the petroleum complex and others.) Are also the largest consumers of energy. The share of the cost of electricity and gas in some industries may be more costs in the quarter. But firms in these sectors can raise their prices, shifting the growth in consumer costs. Analysis of the dynamics of energy expenses and gas for the 2000-2015 biennium. in key sectors of the real sector shows a gradual decline in the share of these costs in production costs in spite of advancing prices (tariffs) growth. For over a decade in the industry share of the energy and gas costs decreased to 11.7% (in 2014) to 13.6% in 2005, which is explained by including energy efficiency. Cost reduction in energy intensity was not observed in the oil sector, metallurgy and a number of export-oriented industries (which account for about 40% of total electricity consumption in the mining and manufacturing industry). Perhaps having some of the best profitability in the economy, they were not interested in using the best available energy-efficient technologies. Crisis freezing of tariffs, and then bind them to the level of indexation of consumer inflation containment argued secondary inflationary effects and attracting investment. But in reality, this approach leads to a redistribution of resources in favor of certain groups of suppliers and consumers of regulated entities and reduces investment demand in the economy. Thus, the profitability of the activities with a high level of control (production and distribution of electricity and gas) in 2015 was almost 10% below the normal profit for the economy, while the company's suppliers and companies consuming low levels of competition in their markets could enormous profits: in the manufacture of wire and cable 23% above normal profit, metallurgy - 20%, the chemical - 17%. That is, these companies and create secondary inflationary effects in the economy. For example, the PPI in the chemical industry was 118.1% in 2015, concerning the start of the year. As a result, the annual net financial result of chemical production increased in 2015 by almost 16 times, the growth of nominal wages in the chemical industry increased by about 10%, and tariffs for gas and electricity at the same time constrained by lower capital goods price index. It would be naive to believe that low fares can compensate for the shortcomings of the business climate. A stable and predictable tariff policy, high-quality management decisions at the state level, reliable and high-quality infrastructure services may become more arguments when making investment resheniy.Tarifnaya policy, of course, can not ignore the macroeconomic context and the authorities have the right as one of the extraordinary complex measures to curb the secondary effects of inflation set limits on the growth of tariffs. must be seriously weighed and used as much as possible short decision on such a containment time, after which the rates should be set taking into account the level of cost effectiveness, the needs of the activities of regulated industries, and also be differentiated by consumers.