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Science, technology and innovation policy: development of instruments and assessing their efficiency

Priority areas of development: economics, management, state and public administration
2016
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The project is devoted to the development of science, technology and innovation policy instruments and evaluation of their effectiveness. The study was focused on six key research areas:

  1. Development of the methodology for long-term forecasting of research and development (R&D) indicators.
  2. Developing methods and approaches to ex-ante evaluation of foresight studies.
  3. The identification of QFD application possibility to meet the challenges of scientific and technological forecasting
  4. Development of the methodology for technological audit of R&D market and R&D performing organizations for corporate science and technology priority-setting.
  5. Defining the role assigned to technological forecasting in energy security theories.
  6. Development of methodology and instruments to support the roadmaps’ drafting, validation and update based on quantitative analysis of research publication abstracts and meta-data of research publications and patents.

1. Development of the methodology for long-term forecasting of R&D indicators

Goal of research:Development and testing the methodology for long-term forecasting of R&D indicators.

Methodology: Long-term forecasting methods forR&D indicators including imitation models, regression analysis and scenario development.

Empirical base of research: Rosstat; OECD Science and technology Indicators; UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) Science, Technology and Innovation (full dataset).

Results of research: First, the research publications on the long-term forecasting using economic and mathematical models were reviewed. Here the main focus was on analysis of macroeconomic models of STI policy. Further the authors identified the advantages and limitations of the existing methodological approaches for the development of long-term forecasts of R&D indicators. Many cases of these methods’ application for long-term forecasting of R&D indicators were shown. Further the authors proposed a system of interconnected mathematical models for long-term forecasting of aggregate R&D indicators, as well as models for Russia’s research and technology development. Finally the authors presented long-term forecasts (up to 2030) of key R&D indicators of Russia in accordance with the developed models.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results:Results of the study may be used by relevant ministries and government agencies in the development of long-term forecasts of development of research and development sector in the Russian Federation.

Developing methods and approaches to ex-ante evaluation of foresight studies

Goal of research: To analyze the specific characteristics of ex-ante evaluation in comparison with ex-post evaluation, and develop the methodological recommendations for implementing ex-ante evaluation of foresight studies.

Methodology: The authors considered the approaches to ex-ante evaluation in the evaluation theory and analyzed theoretical and practical experience of ex-ante evaluation of foresight studies.

Empirical base of research: Theoretical and practical research publications; analytical reports containing outcomes of actual evaluation exercises.

Results of research: As a result, the main characteristics of ex-ante evaluation were identified. For example, ex-post and ex-ante evaluation have different goals and purpose. While ex-ante evaluation is centered around decision-making process and project adjustment, ex-post evaluation is aimed at summarizing outcomes and learn lessons. Ex-ante evaluation relies more on expert analysis and procedures as compared with ex-post evaluation. The main stages of ex-ante evaluation and the criteria for each of them were developed. Moreover, methodological recommendations were formulated. For instance, the involvement of a client and key stakeholders in the evaluation process can improve the evaluation quality.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results: the results of this study may be used for developing evaluation models for actual foresight projects, and improving general approaches to monitoring and assessment of national foresight systems.

3. The identification of quality function deployment QFD application possibility to meet the challenges of scientific and technological forecasting

Goal of research: The investigation of integration opportunities of QFD and Foresight methods to be used in the process of research and technological forecasting at the sectoral and national levels.

Methodology: System analysis, analysis of research publications, methods of Foresight and quality function deployment (QFD).

Empirical base of research: More than 60 academic papers written by the authors from more than 10 countries.

Results of research: based on the analysis of the global best practices of QFD application and the analysis of opportunities for integration of QFD and Foresight methods, the recommendations on the use of QFD to meet the challenges of scientific and technological forecasting were developed.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results: the proposed integrated methodology that combines advantages of QFD and Foresight methodology may be used in the national strategic planning in Russia, i.e. for the review of the long-term National Science and Technology Foresight.

Development of the methodology for technological audit of research and development (R&D) market and R&D performing organizations for corporate science and technology (S&T) priority-setting

Goal of research:Development of the methodology for technological audit of R&D market for corporate S&T priority-setting.

Methodology: Systems analysis, index approach, multifactor analysis.

Empirical base of research:This study contributes to the methodology developed of the HSE projects aimed at evaluating S&T capacity of Russian R&D organizations and determining the level of the existing and future R&D for the effective implementation of the corporate innovation programs.

Results of research:The methodology for technological audit and analysis of R&D market was developed for corporate strategy making in science and technology. The role of expert methods in an independent comprehensive assessment of R&D projects aimed at identifying the best R&D performing organizations. The proposed approach to the identification of the main characteristics of promising R&D includes an assessment of S&T parameters, their market potential, and evaluation of the indicators characterizing the priorities areas of the Russian economy, reflected in government policy documents. Among the important criteria for selecting the best R&D organizations are technical parameters of R&D organizations, as well as the economic, environmental characteristics, limitations, and others.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results:Methodological approaches to technological audit and analysis of R&D market were applied in the research of HSE for evaluating the S&T capacities of Russian R&D organizations and determining the level of the existing and future R&D for the effective implementation of corporate innovation programs. The developed methodology may be used by companies to adjust their systems of S&T priorities and to form the innovative development programs. In addition, the methodology of R&D market analysis may be used by public authorities in the course of surveys (inventory) of R&D sector; development of a system of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of R&D organizations.

5. Defining the role assigned to technological forecasting in energy security theories

Goal of research:analysis of contemporarysocial and economic theories of national energy security in order to define the role and place assigned to technological forecasting.

Methodology: theoretical analysis, desk research, comparative analysis.

Empirical base of research: research publications describing energy security theories developed in the frame of social and economic disciplines; research publications on technological forecasting.

Results of research: the study allowed identifying theoretical basis of energy security studies , as well as the role assigned to technological forecasting in these theories.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results: the outcomes of the study may be used in studies related to further development of energy security theories and their integration with energy technology forecasting studies. The outcomes may also be used by government agencies and energy companies in the course of development and review of their energy security documents and energy technology foresights.

6. Development of methodology and instruments to support the roadmaps’ drafting, validation and update based on quantitative analysis of research publication abstracts and meta-data of research publications and patents

Goal of research:The purpose of the study is to objectively assess and support strategic planning and development of science, technology and innovation policy based on roadmaps.

Methodology: A set of text mining methods and approaches: semantic analysis of abstracts and meta-data of a larger number of science and technology related documents such as scientific publications and patents.

Empirical base of research: An empirical base of research consists of systematic information sources, such as 10% of the most cited scientific publications within the scope of separate research areas for each year during 2005-2015 of Web of Science (WoS) database and international PCT patents with first priority date between 2005 and 2015 extracted from Derwent World Patents Index Thompson Innovation database. Sources of information were also supplemented with a large set of analytical documents of large analytical organizations in order to extract and aggregate relevant statements and forecast estimates.

Results of research: New text mining methods, tools and visualization formats in science and technology used for the development, validation and updating of roadmaps. In addition, sets of keywords, ontologies and analytical representations were identified for various thematic areas (including Biomedicine) relevant to Russia’s science and technology priority areas.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results: The results in the form of new software and sets of analytic representations, ontologies, and keywords were integrated into the business processes of the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge. They are also employed by analysts and experts to support projects, publishing activities and analytical reports in various areas related to science, technology and innovation forecasting, Foresight and policy making, big data analytics and other areas.

Publications:


Meissner D. Public-Private Partnership Models for Science, Technology, and Innovation Cooperation // Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 2019. Vol. 10. P. 1341-1361. doi
Sarpong D., AbdRazak A., Alexander E., Meissner D. Organizing practices of university, industry and government that facilitate (or impede) the transition to a hybrid triple helix model of innovation // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 123. P. 142-152. doi
Feige D., Vonortas N. Context appropriate technologies for development: Choosing for the future // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 119. P. 219-226. doi
Botchie D., Sarpong D., Bi J. Technological inclusiveness: Northern versus Chinese induced technologies in the garment industry // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016 doi
Meissner D. Identification of Stakeholders’ Hidden Agendas for Technology Diffusion, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 33-48. doi
Gokhberg L., Meissner D., Sokolov A. Foresight: Turning Challenges into Opportunities, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 1-8. doi
Вишневский К. О., Егорова О. Г. Региональный форсайт: мировая практика и отечественный опыт // В кн.: XVI Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4 кн. / Отв. ред.: Е. Г. Ясин. Кн. 3. М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2016. С. 677-686.
Linton J. D., Walsh S. T. Integrating Foresight with Corporate Planning, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 49-64. doi
Sokolov A., Chulok A. Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T Foresight 2030 // Futures. 2016. Vol. 80. No. June. P. 17-32. doi
Sarpong D., Dong S., Appiah G. ‘Vinyl never say die’: The re-incarnation, adoption and diffusion of retro-technologies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. No. 103. P. 109-118. doi
Meissner D., Narkhova A., Plekhanov D. The Meaning of Digitalization for Research Skills: Challenges for STI Policy / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 69.
Chulok A. National System of Science and Technology Foresight in Russia, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 125-143. doi
Calof J. L. Government sponsored competitive intelligence for regional and sectoral economic development: Canadian experiences // Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business. 2016. Vol. 6. No. 1. P. 48-58.
Harms R., Linton J. D. Willingness to Pay for Eco-Certified Refurbished Products: The Effects of Environmental Attitudes and Knowledge // Journal of Industrial Ecology. 2016. Vol. 20. No. 4. P. 893-904. doi
Vishnevskiy K., Sibatrova S. Present and future of the production: integrating lean-management into corporate foresight / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016.
Casault S., Groen A. J., Linton J. D. Linking the Value Assessment of Oil and Gas Firms to Ambidexterity Theory Using a Mixture of Normal Distributions // Oil and Gas Science and Technology. 2016. Vol. 71. No. 3. P. 1-11. doi
Grebenyuk A. Y., Shashnov S. A., Sokolov A. S&T Priority Setting. International Practices and the Case of Russia / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 67STI.
Kyzyngasheva E., Proskuryakova L. N. Global energy trends and their implications for Russia: a pathway to the new energy wave / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 64.
Meissner D., Carayannis E., Sokolov A. Key features of roadmapping for company and policy strategy making // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 106-108. doi
Carayannis E., Grebeniuk A., Meissner D. Smart roadmapping for STI policy // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 109-116. doi
Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Integrated roadmaps for strategic management and planning // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 153-166. doi
Carayannis E., Meissner D., Razheva (Edelkina) A. Targeted innovation policy and practice intelligence (TIP2E): concepts and implications for theory, policy and practice // The Journal of Technology Transfer. 2015. P. 460-484. doi
Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O. Challenges and Opportunities for Corporate Foresight, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 65-79. doi
Saritas O., Gokhberg L., Bakhtin P. D., Kuzminov I. Weak Signals on the Future of Mobile Commerce in Russia / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 68.