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The Monitoring of the Monthly Indicators of Industrial production, the exports and imports of goods and the personal consumption expenditures

Priority areas of development: economics
2016
Department: Department for Analysis of Real Economy Sector Industries and Foreign Trade

The object of the research is to identify the monthly dynamics of the following indicators during 2016:

  • industrial production as a whole, disaggregated into 31 activities and the production of 300 industrial commodities;
  • non-industrial production (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, construction, commercial transportation, wholesale and retail trade) and personal consumption expenditures;
  • exports (disaggregated into 19 commodity groups) and imports (disaggregated into 14 commodity groups); the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian goods in the global market for the period from 1998 to 2015 (disaggregated into 90 commodity groups).

The goals of the research are

  • to allow the prompt detection of changes in the monthly dynamics of production indicators, exports and imports, and the output of non-industrial production in the real sector of the economy (months of the beginnings and ends of growth, recession and stagnation periods) using calendar and seasonal adjustments.
  • to assess the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian goods in the global market and factors influencing it.

Methodology. To carry out the work a time series of economic indices is required to build that allow to analyze the various aspects of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics.

Empirical base of research. Data on monthly production, exports and imports are provided by the Russian Federal Statistical Agency – Rosstat (http://www.gks.ru). Data on annual exports and imports are provided in the publications of Russian Federal Customs Service “Foreign trade customs statistics of the Russian Federation”.

Results of research. The results of monthly monitoring are presented in the following reports:

“Indices of industrial production intensity”;

“Indices of non-industrial  production intensity”;

“Indices of exports and imports”.

These reports are regularly refreshed and can be found on the web-site of the Institute “Center for Development” (http://www.dcenter.ru) in the section “Regular reports” and also on the web-site of NRU HSE (http://www.dcenter.hse.ru) (in Russian).

There are two stages in the dynamics of industrial production for the period from November 2015 to October 2016. The first stage (from November 2015 to July 2016) is characterized by a continuation of stagnation that followed the recession from December 2014 to June 2015 due to the impact of the decline in world oil prices; more expensive borrowing for the business sector due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble and the acceleration of the rate of inflation; limited access to external borrowing for the Russian banking sector as a result of economic sanctions against Russia. During this phase, the monthly growth rate of the index of industrial production intensity slightly fluctuated around zero. The second stage (between August and October 2016) is characterized by the recovery of the dynamics of the index of industrial production intensity as a result of revival of investment demand and consumer demand for non-food products. During the first 10 months of 2016 (in October, compared with December of the previous year) the index of industrial production intensity as a whole increased by 2.6% and in manufacturing industries ‑ by 3.7%. Since beginning of 2016 production intensity has increased in 26 out of 31 economic activities, and 5activities have declined. The intensity of economic activities increased most (over 15%) in machine building (manufacturing of devices and tools for measurement, control and testing; production of electronic components, equipment for radio and television; manufacture of railway rolling stock); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur.

The composite index of the intensity of the output of goods and services in non-industrial activities in September 2016 in comparison with December of the previous year increased by 0.1%; excluding agriculture this index decreased by 1% (the increase of the intensity of agricultural production during the period was a 14.3% thanks to a rich harvest and the import substitution effect). Wholesale and retail trade incur the greatest losses (due to a decline in real incomes and consumer loans, as well as reducing the physical volume of foreign trade turnover), and construction (due to the fall in investment activi ty). In September 2016 compared to December personal consumption expenditures fell by 1.5%.

The decline in export dynamics from May 2014 to April 2016 was replaced by the systematic growth of this index in the period from May to September 2016. Continuous growth of imports was also observed from February to September 2016, after a long decline for the period from February 2014 to January 2016. Consequently, since May 2016 the growth of the trade surplus has resumed. For the first 9 months of 2016, seasonally adjusted export growth rate was 3.5%. However, the long-term consequences of the recession are still very noticeable: in September 2016 compared to April 2014 exports fell by 42.9%. The main reason was the fall in prices on the world energy market. For the period from December 2015 to September 2016 imports increased by 14.9%. Overall, from January 2014 to September 2016 imports decreased by 37.7%, to a great extent due to falling imports of machines, equipment and vehicles, because of the decrease in investment activity and the fall in consumer demand (primarily for cars). The growth potential of the competitiveness of Russian goods on the foreign market due to the effect of the devaluation of the Russian ruble after the 1998 crisis was settled in 2006, and since 2007 competitiveness indicators have fallen markedly. In 2013-2015, there was a very insignificant increase in this indicator (from 24.7% in 2013 to 30.6% in 2015). The increase in 2015 compared to 2013 was primarily due to such commodity groups as machines, equipment and vehicles; foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials (except textiles); metals and products from them; basic chemical products, rubber. The indicator of competitiveness in the commodity group "Mineral products" decreased most significantly.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results. These reports provide prompt information for users interested in current tendencies in the dynamics of the listed indicators and factors influencing them. Results of these projects can be used for economic policy making, improvements of the official statistics methodology.