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Monitoring of global technology trends: development of approaches for computer-based trend identification

Priority areas of development: economics
2016
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The main goal of this research project is to develop an integrated system for monitoring of global technology trends having potential significant impact on global social-economic development in the long term. The project benefits from a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, which ranges from Bibliometrics, Scientometrics and Technology Mining to other well-known methods of Foresight including Horizon Scanning, scenarios, the Delphi method and expert panels. Large academic, scientific and media databases are analyzed by using the data mining techniques. The input from the scanning phase is elaborated further with expert consultations through surveys and workshops.

The purpose of the study in 2016 is to develop further quantitative methodology and approached for computer-based trend monitoring and to identify trends for priority areas of science and technology obtained.

Information base of the research includes analytical reports of international organizations, materials of foreign foresight centers, forecasts by large corporations and private companies, data from consulting agencies, Russian foresights for R&D in various industries, databases of scientific publications, patents and dissertations and other sources.

The research obtained the following results:

  • the results of technological trends monitoring in 2015 were updated for priority areas of science and technology (information and communication technology, biotechnology, medicine and health service, new materials and nanotechnology, rational use of natural resources, transport and the approaches to integrate thematic clusters and to analyze dynamic patters of terms and names in scientific publications and patents were developed for the purpose of identification, analysis, and validation of new technological trends;
  • technological trends for several interdisciplinary technological areas as well as technological trends for important spheres were identified, namely information-communication technology, biotechnology, new materials and nanotechnology, advanced manufacturing technology; food and nutrition, and natural resources, etc.;
  • series of regular newsletters (trendletters) about the global and Russian tendencies of technological development were prepared and published for each considered area of science and technology.

The results of the research may be of interest to federal government agencies, companies and academic community. The results of the research can be used in the development of programs for priority areas of science, technology and engineering in the Russian Federation, for sectoral long-term foresight studies, and strategies for science and technology development.

Publications:


Соколова А. В., Микова Н. С., Гутарук Е. В., Гохберг Л. М., Саритас О., Соколов А. В., Чулок А. А., Кузьминов И. Ф., Сайгитов Р. Т., Бахтин П. Д., Ярославцев А. Б., Осмоловский А., Матич Л. Ю., Решетова Е. М., Королева О., Жукова Е., Сокольский В., Акимова В., Корнилова А., Меркулова Е., Киселева Л. А., Залесский Н. В., Ефименко В. Глобальные технологические тренды / Под общ. ред.: Л. М. Гохберг, О. Саритас, А. В. Соколов, А. В. Соколова. М. : НИУ ВШЭ, 2016.
Saritas O., Burmaoglu S. Future of sustainable military operations under emerging energy and security considerations // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 102. P. 331-343. doi
Bakhtin P., Saritas O. Tech Mining for Emerging STI Trends Through Dynamic Term Clustering and Semantic Analysis: The Case of Photonics, in: Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis / Ed. by T. Daim, D. Chiavetta, A. Porter, O. Saritas. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 341-360. doi
Saritas O. Integration of Trend Monitoring into STI Policy, in: Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers: Creating Opportunities Through Public Policies and Corporate Strategies in Science, Technology and Innovation / Ed. by L. Gokhberg, D. Meissner, A. Sokolov. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 11-32. doi
Amanatidou E., Saritas O., Loveridge D. Strategies for emerging research and innovation futures // Foresight. 2016. Vol. 18. No. 3. P. 253-275. doi
Mikova N. Recent Trends in Technology Mining Approaches: Quantitative Analysis of GTM Conference Proceedings, in: Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis / Ed. by T. Daim, D. Chiavetta, A. Porter, O. Saritas. Netherlands : Springer, 2016. doi P. 59-69. doi
Mikova N. Climate change and our future: anticipating trends and challenges using media data / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 65/STI/2016 .