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Scenarios of the Russian economy in the future up to 2034: growth factors and structural changes

Priority areas of development: economics
2017
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Целью научного исследования является разработка сценариев развития российской экономики на перспективу до 2034 года, включая факторы роста и структурные изменения.

Goal of research: The research goal is developing the scenarios of the economic growth in Russia up to the year 2034, including the growth factors and structural changes. The goal includes the following tasks:

  • The analysis of the current macroeconomic processes in the Russian economy and the key economic sectors (the real sector, banking sector, financial and budget sector, households sector), foreign trade, and financial and capital flows with the outside world;

  • Regular monitoring of the monetary and fiscal policy and another economic policy directions in Russia, including policy oriented to the economic structure changes; estimating the macroeconomic consequences of the politic decisions;

  • Estimating the short-term prospects of the Russian economy on the base of the regular interviewing of the specialists on macroeconomic forecasting and using the cyclical indicators system;

  • Developing the economic growth short-term and mid-term scenarios based on the macroeconomic modelling;

  • Developing the economic growth long-term scenarios;

  • The analysis of the main economic and financial indicators of Belorussia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine;

  • Preparation of the expert conclusions for the official Forecasts of social and economic development of the Russian Federation, Budget Law projects, Monetary Policy projects by the Central Bank of Russia.

Methodology: The analysis of the short-term prospects of the Russian economy is based on the statistical and econometric methods of the data analysis, interviewing of the economic forecasting specialists, and the analysis based on the composite indices system which lead the general economic dynamics of 1-2 quarters, developed in the Development Center Institute.

The mid-term forecasting is based on the multidimensional macroeconomic model used for imitational modelling of the different economic development scenarios, finding the bottlenecks of the Russian economy and estimating the potential efficiency of the public policy measures.

The developing of the long-term economic growth forecasts in the future up to 2034 year, including the description of the qualitative assumptions, scenario conditions and the results, is based on the historical GDP growth decomposition and  scenario modelling of the GDP growth up to 2035 year.

Empirical base of research: The research includes the statistical, graphical and econometric analysis based on the open data sources provided by Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, Bank of Russia, Ministry of Finance of Russian Federation, Russian Federal Treasury, Federal Tax Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service, and another international and national sources. For the purposes of the research also were used official Forecasts of social and economic development of Russia, Federal budget law project, projects of Guidelines for the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia, strategic planning system documents.

Results of research: As the result of the research, the scenarios of the Russian economy in the mid-term and long-term were developed. According to the basic scenario, the GDP growth will slow from 2% in the 2017 to 0,5% in the 2018 and 0,9% in the 2019-2020 years. In the 2021 year, in presence of the budget rule implementation effects, the economic growth will come up to the sustainable in the long run growth level of 1,5% under the stable oil price dynamics in the constant dollars. The stable trade conditions will contribute to the approximate equality between the income and demand growth rates and the GDP growth rates. For example, in contrast to the intensive recovery of the real wages in the 2017 year, the real wages growth rate is expected to be substantially lower in the 2018 year or, in case of the strong wages indexation for the certain groups of state employees, in the 2019 year. The consumers’ demand will grow by 1% per year in the 2018-2020 years, and the investment will grow a little more although not so fast as in the 2017 year. The public demand decrease will keep on in the 2018-2020 years: compensation of employees and pensions are protected expenditure groups, which determines the public purchases and public investment as the main spending groups which will be limited under the budget sequestration.

Level of implementation,  recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results: practical importance of the research includes the possibility to use the research findings in preparing regular informational and analytical reports, addressed to interested organizations Commentaries on forecasting social and economic development of Russia, Federal budget Law project, projects of Guidelines for the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia, and recommendations addressed to President, the Government and the Bank of Russia. The results can be implemented for informational, expert and analytical support of Government and Bank of Russia on economics and economic policy questions.

Publications:


Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V. Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2017. No. 169.
Smirnov Sergey, Kondrashov Nikolay. Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia, in: Business Cycles in BRICS / Ed. by Smirnov Sergey, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti.; Ed. by S. V. Smirnov, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti. Springer, 2019. doi Ch. 22. P. 363-375. doi
Smirnov Sergey. A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia, in: Business Cycles in BRICS / Ed. by Smirnov Sergey, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti.; Ed. by S. V. Smirnov, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti. Springer, 2019. doi Ch. 21. P. 347-361. doi
Smirnov Sergey. Economic Fluctuations and Their Drivers in Russia, in: Business Cycles in BRICS / Ed. by Smirnov Sergey, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti.; Ed. by S. V. Smirnov, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti. Springer, 2019. doi Ch. 6. P. 89-119. doi
Акиндинова Н. В., Чекина К. С., Яркин А. М. Экономический рост в России с учетом демографических изменений и вклада человеческого капитала // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2017. Т. 21. № 4. С. 533-561.
Akindinova Natalia, Chernyavskiy Andrey, Kondrashov Nikolay, Yakovlev A. A. Political Response to the Crisis: The Case of Russia, in: Economics of European Crises and Emerging Markets. L. : Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. doi P. 239-262. doi