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Stimulation of long-term economic growth in the conditions of external shocks: historical experience and search of modern decisions

Priority areas of development: economics
2017
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The project was implemented in 2017 within the Program of Fundamental Research of HSE. It continued the series of studies of economic growth of the Russian economy in the comparative perspective.

Goal of research. This project aims to identify changes in primary and proximate sources of long run growth of the Russian economy after external shocks.

Methodology. The research methodology is based on parametric and non-parametric analysis of sources of growth. The former assumes using  econometric techniques, which are focused on the estimation of dynamic models of short and non- stationary time series. The latter is called in the literature `industry growth and developing accounting’. The former suggests the decomposition of real value added growth rates into growth rates of labour, capital and total factor productivity of one country. In turn, the latter assumes the similar decomposition of the output gap between two countries.

To carry out the work time series of economic indices are built that allow analyzing the various aspects of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics. The research methodology is based on international standards of construction of systems of national accounts, including the system of "input-output" tables, and mathematical models of inter-industry linkages. The work is based on theoretical approaches developed in the framework of the neoclassical paradigm of decomposition of economic growth and the theory of the index-numbers in comparison of the levels of total factor productivity. These approaches are developed to reflect the transformation and post-transformation specific nature.

Empirical base of research. Mostly the official statistics is used, which is provided by the Russian Statistical Office (Rosstat), as well as disaggregated data. It is also important using extensive information about the details of construction technique of appropriate indicators. In addition, where necessary, alternative indicators of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics and the data from alternative sources (including own estimates) are used. Enhanced understanding of the structure and dynamics of the sources of economic growth in Russia as compared to the literature is provided by the more detailed level of industries, the extension of the period in consideration back to early 1960-s, as well as comparisons at the level of industries across countries.

Results of research. The first study of the project addresses the question, how the sources of long run growth of the Russian economy changed after the global economic crisis. The study shows that, at least, some of global causes of productivity slowdown can be observed in Russia. Using the conventional industry growth accounting it compares the pre- and post-crisis sources of growth of the Russian economy. Specifically, it represents aggregate labour productivity growth as the sum of capital deepening and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in industries, and the contribution of labour reallocation between industries. It shows that stagnation of 2008-2014 is more the outcome of TFP slowdown and the deterioration of the allocation of labour rather than the lack of capital inputs. At the same time, relatively stable capital deepening makes the Russian pattern in some degree similar to resources abundant Australia and Canada. Next, the contribution of information and communication capital to labour productivity growth in Russia after 2008 declined, which can hamper technology diffusion. Finally the structure of the flow of capital services in Russia has changed after 2008. Before the crisis the contribution of machinery and equipment dominated, while after the crisis constructions provided the lions’ share of capital inputs.

The second study deals with the issues of macroeconomic policy in context of a possible crisis of the existing paradigm. To what extent the traditional approaches to the description of the national economy remain relevant, taking into account the explosive development of `the new economy’ activities, which is featured by technology-intensive goods and services and orientation to the globalizing world economy. The study considers the requirements to the system of statistics in Russia as a necessary tool for the in-depth analysis of macroeconomic dynamics. New matching techniques of quarter and annual series of output by products and industries were developed.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results. The present project provides a unique empirical base for applied analytical studies and economic policy making. The Russia KLEMS dataset attracted interest of the Conference Board the Conference Board (http://www.conference-board.org/), Institute of Economies in Transition of the Bank of Finland BOFIT (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/bofit/Pages/default.aspx), OECD (http://www.oecd.org/) and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (http://www.wiiw.ac.at/).

Results of this project can be used for economic policy making, improvements of the official statistics methodology and for teaching.

The laboratory also provides expert examination services for such government authorities as Economic Council of the President, the Central Bank of Russia, Rosstat, Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Moscow Government, Centre for Strategic research, and the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, et al.

Publications:


Шоломицкая Е. В. Влияние ключевых макроэкономических шоков на инвестиции в России // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2017. Т. 21. № 1. С. 89-113.
Voskoboynikov I. Russia since 1995: Natural Gas, Catching Up and Informality, in: Productivity Dynamics in Emerging and Industrialized Countries. L. : Routledge, 2018. Ch. 11. P. 313-330.
Voskoboynikov I. Structural change, expanding informality and labour productivity growth in Russia / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2017. No. 168.
Voskoboynikov I. Structural change, expanding informality and labour productivity growth in Russia / Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition. Series DP "BOFIT Discussion Papers". 2017. No. 18.
Motorin V. Enhancing the Distance Minimization Methods of Matrix Updating within a Homothetic Paradigm // Journal of Economic Structures. 2017. Vol. 6. No. 36. P. 1-22. doi
Motorin V. The Linear Matrix-Valued Cost Functions as a Source of Leontief and Ghosh Models // Artha vijnana : journal of the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Poona (India) = Artha vijnana : Gokhale Artha Sastra Samstha Dvara Prakasita Traimesika Patrika. 2017. Vol. 59. No. 4. P. 291-301. doi
Petronevich A., Billio M. Dynamical Interaction between Financial and Business Cycles / University Ca' Foscari of Venice. Series WP/2017 "University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Dept. of Economics Research Paper Series". 2017.
Voskoboynikov I. The transition period (1989 to the present). Economic growth and sectoral developments, in: The Economic History of Central, East and South-East Europe: 1800 to the Present. Routledge, 2019. Ch. 14.