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Near and Middle East in the context of the global phase transition

Priority areas of development: humanitarian
2017
Department: Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Goal of research: identification of the main parameters of the transformation of socio-political destabilization dynamics in the epicenter countries of the global phase transition in the period of 2011-2015, the subsequent development of practical recommendations for overcoming or avoiding socio-political instability.

Methodology: The main method of research is a system method based on the modern theory of political systems. In addition, the study uses situational analysis, methods of political sociology, as well as significant elements of political-historical and political-philosophical approaches.

Empirical base of research: in the research, CNTS and Freedom House databases were used.

Results of research:

a) During the implementation of the project, the team attempted to test the hypothesis that consolidated democracies and successive autocracies are more stable than intermediate regimes. Empirical tests using the CNTS and Freedom House databases in general have confirmed the existence of a U-shaped relationship between the type of regime and the level of socio-political instability (consolidated democracies and successive autocracies are more stable than intermediate regimes). At the same time, it revealed a number of important details. First, the U-shaped dependence of the level of socio-political instability on the type of regime, as a rule, is significantly asymmetrical. Secondly, the nature of this asymmetry can change with time. Thirdly, after the end of the Cold War, the U-shaped relationship between the type of regime and the level of socio-political instability has significantly weakened and undergone important changes. If in 1973-1991, the highest level of socio-political instability was demonstrated by unconsolidated democracies, in 1992-2012, it became more characteristic of inconsistent autocracies.

b) Another result of the work on the project is the assumption that a prolonged fall in oil prices leads to an almost inevitable increase in socio-political instability in the oil-exporting countries, and their systematic increase could be regarded a powerful factor of socio-political stabilization. At the same time, the dependence appears to have a power law character - therefore, price changes in the range above $ 60 per barrel do not have a very strong impact on the level of socio-political instability in oil-exporting countries, but when it falls below this level, the next 10 dollars leads to significant increase in the risks of socio-political destabilization. These risks are especially high with a prolonged fall in prices below $ 40 per barrel, and with the prolonged fall of these prices below $ 35, a very noticeable increase in socio-political instability in oil-exporting countries is almost inevitable. At the same time, the effect of a three-year time lag is revealed: although a strong sustained drop in oil prices immediately leads to a noticeable increase in the risks of socio-political destabilization, a truly high risk becomes three years after this. This is due to the fact that, during a period of high prices, the oil exporting states usually accumulate a certain stock of stability, which tends to dissipate for consistently low prices in three years (note that a steady rise in prices tends to exert its stabilizing effect with a three-year lag).

The practical inevitability of the growth of overall socio-political instability in oil-exporting countries with the fall in oil prices below $ 35 (in dollars in 2014) does not mean that a very significant increase in socio-political instability is absolutely inevitable in any of the oil-exporting countries. For example, in the 1980s and early 1990s, a prolonged fall in oil prices served as a powerful factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union or the genesis of the civil war in Algeria, while Saudi Arabia (although not at all easily) succeeded to avoid serious socio-political destabilization in those years. Thus, for the oil-exporting countries, a prolonged drop in prices below the level of 40 (and especially 35) dollars per barrel greatly increases the risk of socio-political destabilization, but does not make it inevitable. Yes, if the price of oil does not return to a level above $ 60 per barrel in the coming years, one could expect a significant increase in socio-political instability in some oil-exporting countries; if this price steadily goes below 40 (and especially 35) dollars, we can expect much stronger destabilization in a larger number of oil-exporting countries. Accordingly, in Russia, the oil-dependent risk of socio-political destabilization has grown already practically and will inevitable (if oil prices do not return to levels above $ 60) grow in the coming years (let's not forget about the three-year lag). With a steady drop in prices to levels below 40 (and especially 35) dollars, this risk will grow particularly strongly. But even in the latter case, it will not be about the inevitable radical destabilization; in the case of adequate actions by the state administration and civil society, it can very well be prevented.

c) The work carried out on the project also showed that the statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0,935, R2 = 0,875) between GDP per capita and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations found in the range of up to USD 20,000 at purchasing power parity is partly connected with the following circumstances: 1) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes leads to an intensification of the struggle for democracy, and hence to an increase in the number of anti-government demonstrations; 2) In countries with per capita income of up to $ 20,000, per capita GDP growth is strongly correlated with a decrease in the share of authoritarian regimes and an increase in the share of non-authoritarian (democratic and transit) regimes, while the availability of non-authoritarian regimes in this category significantly correlates with a higher intensity of anti-government demonstrations; 3) in countries with a per capita income of up to $ 20,000, GDP growth leads to an increase in the educational level of the population, and an increase in the educational level of the population, in turn, contributes to an increase in the number of anti-government demonstrations. At the same time, all three mechanisms considered by us together do not fully explain the revealed correlation, which indicates the need for further research.

d) It is shown that although socio-political destabilization was observed in recent years in all the World System zones, in the countries of the Near and Middle East it had more violent forms than in most other World-System zones, where internal destabilization was expressed mainly in the form of demonstrations, strikes, riots, etc. So, in spite of the fact that in other World-System zones there was also a noticeable growth of terrorist activity, in the countries of the Near and Middle East its level was recently 2-3 times higher there.

e) Despite the existence of a large number of studies on the factors of terrorism, most of them are exploring these factors at the personal, group, cross-national level. Within the framework of this project, these factors were investigated at provincial level in Iran in 2005-2013. The main trends of terrorism in Iran during this period were a high concentration of terrorist attacks and their commitment by ethno-religious groups. With the help of a negative binomial regression on the basis of 242 points distributed over 31 provinces over 8 years, it was revealed that unemployment and Sunni-Shi’a schism are key factors in the terrorist attacks in this country. The share of Baloch people in the province's population was also significant.

f) It is shown that the war in Afghanistan served as a trigger for the development of Islamist movements in Iraqi Kurdistan. For a long time, the "echo of Afghanistan" in the form of returning soldiers who had received military and religious training, significantly influenced the political situation in Iraqi Kurdistan. There is a risk that during the next decade the political processes in Kurdistan will be affected by an "echo of ISIS" (prohibited in Russia), if it would be destroyed. In addition, the border areas with Iran, near the province of Halabja, are a permanent powder keg for Iraqi Kurdistan. The Islamic Movement of Kurdistan (IMK) began to grow and develop its infrastructure in Halabja back in the 1980s. At the moment, the IMK practically does not represent a serious political force, as it received only one seat in the parliament in the 2013 elections, but the works of thirty years ago still bear fruit: various Islamist groups still draw human resources in these areas. Also, at the moment there are a number of prerequisites for the growth of the influence of Islamist movements. Among them, it is worth noting the corruptness and ineffectiveness of the current political system of Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition, thanks to the migration inside Iraq, even more Muslim Arabs began to live in the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan. Moreover, the consequences of the war in Afghanistan had a tremendous impact on the Islamic factor in regional stability. Former "Afghan fighters" brought to South Kurdistan not only a radical ideology, but also military experience. The expansion of radical ideas in the region has received a serious impulse. Despite the neighborhood of the Iraqi Kurdistan and the "Islamic State", the factor of the role of Islamist movements in the destabilization of the region at the moment can still be considered relatively unimportant. However, in the future, it may increase in connection with the return of militants of the "Islamic State" to their homeland. The consequences of such processes can be seen in the example of the nineties фтв the beginning of the 2000th, when militants from Afghanistan returned to the territory of Kurdistan. Also, one should not discount the refugees from war-torn Iraqi territories, among which the majority focuses not on the Kurdish national idea, but on the Islamic one. Along with the consequences of the economic crisis in Kurdistan, this phenomenon is likely to only expand the social base of Islamists.

Publications:


Коротаев А. В., Мещерина К. В., Куликова Е. Д., Дельянов В. Г. Арабская весна и ее глобальное эхо: количественный анализ // Сравнительная политика. 2017. Т. 8. № 4. С. 113-126.
Акаев А. А., Сарыгулов А., Соколов В. О динамической оптимизации роста ВВП путем изменения уровня неравенства доходов // Экономическая политика. 2017. Т. 12. № 6. С. 8-23. doi
Малков С. Ю. Моделирование закономерностей мировой динамики // Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2017. Т. 9. № 3. С. 419-432. doi
Малков С. Ю. Глобальное развитие и Россия // Экономика и управление: проблемы, решения. 2017. Т. 2. № 9. С. 72-78.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Chiefdoms and their analogues: alternatives of social evolution at the societal level of medium complexity, in: Chiefdoms: Yesterday and Today / Ed. by R. L. Carneiro, L. E. Grinin, A. Korotayev. NY : Eliot Werner Publications Incorporated, 2017. Ch. 3. P. 63-108.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History, in: Comparing Globalizations Historical and World-Systems Approaches. Springer Publishing Company, 2018. doi Ch. 2. P. 37-70. doi
Carneiro R. L., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Claessen H. J., Kradin N. N., Gibson D. B., Timothy K. E., Skalnik P., Chabal P., Feinman G. M. Chiefdoms: Yesterday and Today / Ed. by R. L. Carneiro, L. E. Grinin, A. Korotayev. NY : Eliot Werner Publications Incorporated, 2017.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Chiefdoms from the beginning until now, in: Chiefdoms: Yesterday and Today / Ed. by R. L. Carneiro, L. E. Grinin, A. Korotayev. NY : Eliot Werner Publications Incorporated, 2017. Ch. 1. P. 3-14.
Малков С. Ю. Математическое моделирование социально-экономических циклов в историческом развитии // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. Гл. 17. С. 335-369.
Малков С. Ю., Старков Н., Давыдова О. Сценарное моделирование экономического развития России с использованием динамической модели // Экономика и управление: проблемы, решения. 2017. Т. 3. № 5. С. 111-119.
Садовничий В. А., Акаев А. А., Коротаев А. В., Малков С. Ю., Соколов В. Н. Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики. М. : Издательская группа URSS, 2017.
Shishkina A., Issaev L. From Fitnah to Thaura: The Metamorphosis of the Arab-Muslim Protest Movements // Religions. 2017 doi
Ортманс О. А., Маццео Э., Meshcherina K., Korotayev A. Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability in the United Kingdom after 1960: A Demographic Structural Analysis // Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside. 2017. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 113-158. doi
Исаев Л. М. От фитны к сауре: метаморфозы арабо-мусульманских протестных движений // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2017. № 2. С. 146-156.
Гринин Л. Е., Малыженков С. В., Билюга С. Э., Коротаев А. В. О росте числа студентов как возможном факторе социально-политической дестабилизации: количественный анализ // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. / Отв. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, Л. М. Исаев, К. В. Мещерина. Вып. 8. Волгоград : Учитель, 2017. Гл. 3. С. 83-99.
Гринберг Р. С., Коротаев А. В., Билюга С. Э., Быканова Д. А. К количественному анализу коррупции как фактора политической дестабилизации // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. / Отв. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, Л. М. Исаев, К. В. Мещерина. Вып. 8. Волгоград : Учитель, 2017. Гл. 6. С. 170-185.
Гринин Л. Е., Коротаев А. В., Бондаренко В., Гринберг Р. Юбилей Н. Д. Кондратьева в свете современных проблем мировой экономики // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. С. 5-17.
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., Ilyin I. The Early Stages of Globalization Evolution: Networks of Diffusion and Exchange of Domesticates, Technologies, and Luxury Goods // Social Evolution & History. 2017. Vol. 16. No. 1. P. 69-85.
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics Vol. World Politics. Oxford University Press, 2016.
The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior. Thousand Oaks : Sage, 2017.
Korotayev A., Bilyuga S., Slinko E., Zinkina J. V. Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis // Cross-Cultural Research. 2017. Vol. 51. No. 1. P. 26-50. doi
Grinin L. E., Grinin A. L., Korotayev A. The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution, in: Industry 4.0. Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape. Springer, 2017. Ch. 12. P. 243-261. doi
Akaev A., Korotayev A., Issaev L., Zinkina J. V. Technological development and protest waves: Arab spring as a trigger of the global phase transition? // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 116. P. 316-321. doi
Tausch A., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Akamatsu Waves, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics Vol. World Politics. Oxford University Press, 2016. Ch. 5. P. 1-16. doi
Korotayev A. Malthusian Cycle, in: The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior. Thousand Oaks : Sage, 2017. Ch. M. P. 458-462. doi
Tausch A., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. Akamatsu Waves Ch. 5. P. 1-16.
Архангельский В. Н., Зинькина Ю. В., Коротаев А. В., Шульгин С. Г. Современные тенденции рождаемости в России и влияние мер государственной поддержки // Социологические исследования. 2017. № 3. С. 43-50.
Коротаев А. В., Хайруллин Т. Р. Конституция Ирака 2005 года и принципы ислама // Ислам в современном мире. 2017. Т. 13. № 2. С. 139-152.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Grinin A. L. Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 115. P. 52-68. doi
Исаев Л. М., Захаров А. А. Игра в независимость, или почему иракские курды угрожают развалить Ирак // Неприкосновенный запас. Дебаты о политике и культуре. 2017. № 3. С. 112-131.
Гринин Л. Е., Билюга С. Э., Коротаев А. В., Гринин А. Л. Возраст государства и социально-политическая дестабилизация: предварительные результаты количественного анализа // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. / Отв. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, Л. М. Исаев, К. В. Мещерина. Вып. 8. Волгоград : Учитель, 2017. Гл. 5. С. 141-169.
Коротаев А. В., Зинькина Ю. В. Великая дивергенция XVIII века? // Восток. Афро-Азиатские общества: история и современность. 2017. С. 40-48.
Гринин Л. Е. Глава 16. Модернизация и социально-политические кризисы // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. С. 309-334.
Коротаев А. В., Гринин Л. Е. Заключение. Приближающийся кризис в свете теории длинных волн // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. С. 370-380.
Гринин Л. Е., Гринин А. Л. Глава 11. О шестом технологическом укладе // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. С. 191-211.
Зинькина Ю. В., Гринин Л. Е., Ильин И., Андреев А., Алешковский И., Шульгин С., Коротаев А. В. Историческая глобалистика Том 2. XIX век. М. : Учитель, 2017.
Гринин А. Л., Гринин Л. Е. Ведущие технологии шестого технологического уклада // В кн.: Социально-экономические проблемы современности: поиски междисциплинарных решений: сборник научных трудов участников Международной конференции «XXIV Кондратьевские чтения». М. : Межрегиональная общественная организация содействия изучению, пропаганде научного наследия Н.Д. Кондратьева, 2017. С. 99-104.
Grinin L. E. Complex Chiefdoms: Precursor of the State or Its Analogue?, in: Chiefdoms: Yesterday and Today / Ed. by R. L. Carneiro, L. E. Grinin, A. Korotayev. NY : Eliot Werner Publications Incorporated, 2017. P. 195-232.
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Марков А. Biological and Social Phases of Big History: Evolutionary Principles and Mechanisms, in: From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations. A Big History Anthology Volume III. The Ways that Big History Works: Cosmos, Life, Society and Our Future. Primus Books, 2017. P. 158-199.
Социально-экономические проблемы современности: поиски междисциплинарных решений: сборник научных трудов участников Международной конференции «XXIV Кондратьевские чтения». М. : Межрегиональная общественная организация содействия изучению, пропаганде научного наследия Н.Д. Кондратьева, 2017.
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E., Bilyuga S., Meshcherina K., Shishkina A. Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality // Russian Sociological Review. 2017. Vol. 16. No. 3. P. 9-35. doi
Гринин Л. Е. The Processes of Systemic Integration in the World System // Journal of Globalization Studies. 2017. Т. 8. № 1. С. 97-118.
Bondarenko V., Ilyin I., Korotayev A. Transition to a new global paradigm of development and the role of the united nations in this process // World Futures. 2017. Vol. 73. No. 8. P. 511-538. doi
Коротаев А. В., Зинькина Ю. В. Великая дивергенция XVIII века? // Восток. Афро-Азиатские общества: история и современность. 2017. Т. 4. С. 38-46.
Хайруллин Т. Р., Коротаев А. В. Ислам и йеменские конституции: опыт сопоставительного анализа // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2017. № 5. С. 43-48.
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Гринин Л. Е. Русская революция и ловушки модернизации // Полис. Политические исследования. 2017. С. 138-155. doi
Korotayev A., Akaev A. Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years: A Forecast // Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of the Anthropological and Related Sciences. 2017. Vol. 10(1). P. 1-21.
Гринин Л. Е., Коротаев А. В. Глава 6. О некоторых аспектах истории исследования длинноволновой динамики // В кн.: Н. Д. Кондратьев: кризисы и прогнозы в свете теории длинных волн. Взгляд из современности / Науч. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, В. Бондаренко. М. : Учитель, 2017. С. 82-105.
Хохлова А. А., Коротаев А. В., Цирель С. В. Безработица и социально-политическая дестабилизация в странах Западной и Восточной Европы: опыт количественного анализа // В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. / Отв. ред.: Л. Е. Гринин, А. В. Коротаев, Л. М. Исаев, К. В. Мещерина. Вып. 8. Волгоград : Учитель, 2017. Гл. 2. С. 37-82.