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Study of global technology trends: development of quantitative approaches for trend analysis

Priority areas of development: economics
2017
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The main goal of this research project is to develop an integrated system for monitoring of global technology trends having potential significant impact on global social-economic development in the long term. The project benefits from a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, which ranges from Bibliometrics, Scientometrics and Technology Mining to other well-known methods of Foresight including Horizon Scanning, scenarios, the Delphi method and expert panels. Large academic, scientific and media databases are analyzed by using the data mining techniques. The input from the scanning phase is elaborated further with expert consultations through surveys and workshops.

The purpose of the work in 2017 is the further development of the methodology for studying global technological trends based on the improvement of quantitative methods, updating the results of monitoring technological trends in priority areas for the development of science and technology in 2016, expanding interaction with external stakeholders (sectoral centers for scientific and technological forecasting etc.).

Information base of the research includes analytical reports of international organizations, materials of foreign foresight centers, forecasts by large corporations and private companies, data from consulting agencies, Russian foresights for R&D in various industries, databases of scientific publications, patents and dissertations and other sources.

The research obtained the following results:

  • the results of monitoring technological trends for priority areas of development of science and technology obtained in 2016 on the basis of analytical and expert procedures (advanced production technologies and others) were updated;
  • the approaches to the analysis of technological trends based on the synthesis of statistical, syntactic and semantic analysis of texts in the processing of big data were developed to solve issues related to the search and validation of technological trends;
  • series of regular newsletters (trendletters) about the global and Russian tendencies of technological development were prepared and published for each considered area of science and technology.
  • on this basis of revealed technological trends for a number of key sectors of the Russian Federation's economy several special (expanded) issues of trendletters, including, among other things, analysis of the Russian market and domestic enterprises, were prepared with the participation of the sectoral centers for scientific and technological forecasting.

The results of the research may be of interest to federal government agencies, companies and academic community. The results of the research can be used in the development of programs for priority areas of science, technology and engineering in the Russian Federation, for sectoral long-term foresight studies, and strategies for science and technology development.

 

Publications:


Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D., Razheva (Edelkina) A., Klubova M. Technology foresight in asset intensive industries: The case of Russian shipbuilding // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. No. 119. P. 194-204. doi
Gokhberg L., Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., E. Tochilina, Chulok A., Timofeev A., Lavrynenko A. S. Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2017. No. WP BRP 76/STI/2017.
Burmaoglu S., Saritas O. Changing characteristics of warfare and the future of Military R&D // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 116. No. March . P. 151-161. doi