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Long-term Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Russia, the CIS and Countries of Eastern Europe in Comparative Prospect

Priority areas of development: economics
2018
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The project was implemented in 2018 within the Program of Fundamental Research of HSE. It continued the series of studies of inflation and economic growth of the Russian economy in the comparative perspective.

Goal of research

The aim of the study is to identify economic mechanisms that explain the effect of imbalances and shocks of the planned and transformation periods on long-term economic growth. The object of the research is long-term economic growth and structural changes in a comparative perspective.

Methodology

The research methodology is based on international statistical standard for national accounts, including input-output tables, as well as on the modern methods and models for analyzing and forecasting inter-industry linkages. In addition, the research methodology is based on a well-known statistical method for quantifying the sources of economic growth – a structural decomposition analysis approach.

Empirical base of research

Mostly the official statistics is used, which is provided by the Russian State Statistical Office, Rosstat, (economic indicators and input-output tables), as well as disaggregated data. It is also important using extensive information about the details of construction technique of appropriate indicators. In addition, where necessary, alternative indicators of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics and the data from alternative sources (including own estimates) are used.

Results of research

The slowdown in long-term growth trends in growth of the Russian economy is analyzed. The methodological problems of using the structural decomposition method in the input-output model for the modern Russian economy are analyzed. The problems of non-optimal investment behavior are considered. The models of matching vector quarterly economic statistics data are built on the basis of the structural characteristics of the reference macroeconomic matrix, as well as the harmonization of quarterly macroeconomic matrices with the annual matrix.

Level of implementation, recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

The present project provides a unique empirical base for applied analytical studies and economic policy making. The Russia KLEMS dataset attracted interest of the Conference Board the Conference Board (http://www.conference-board.org/), Institute of Economies in Transition of the Bank of Finland BOFIT (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/bofit/Pages/default.aspx), OECD (http://www.oecd.org/) and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (http://www.wiiw.ac.at/).

Results of this project can be used for economic policy making, improvements of the official statistics methodology and for teaching.

The laboratory also provides expert examination services for such government authorities as the Centre for Strategic Research, the Central Bank of Russia, the Russian State Statistical Office, the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, and Government of Moscow, etc.

Publications:


Dementiev A. Contracting out public transport services to vertical partnerships // Research in Transportation Economics. 2018. Vol. 69. No. September. P. 126-134. doi
Voskoboynikov I. Structural change, expanding informality and labour productivity growth in Russia // Review of Income and Wealth. 2019