The aim of the research is development of new models in the framework of the system of models elaborated for analysis and forecasting of Russian economy and its separate sectors by the staff of the laboratory. These new models should correspond to changing economic environment of Russia. The models should be ready for both fundamental and applied researches running by researchers, students and PhD-students of NRU HSE.
Methodology of research combines econometric, general equilibrium and analytical approaches to modelling of contemporary economic processes in specific branches of Russian economy.
Some significant improvements were made during the current year. Some sectorial models of Russian economy have been modified. Financial sanctions and the moderate rate of growth of Russian economy forced to take into account new economic reality and to check robustness of the previously developed models under new environment. There were developed some solutions to arisen problems including the following. Development of the model of the real sector of the Russian economy; modification of the of the banking sector for improvement of forecast power of a dynamic model; original GDP decomposition; revealing of measure of influence of direct foreign investments in firms of Russian food industry; risk evaluation at Russian financial market; modelling of hidden incomes of Russian households; modelling of interregional migration in Russia specific for different age strata.
The main research results are the following:
The CGE model of the real sector of the Russian economy was developed. The model is based on the original GDP decomposition and it demonstrated high accuracy of GDP components observed. The consumer block showed high fitting of the following trajectories: consumption, employment, and consumers’ deposits. The results can be used for more accurate forecasting and economic policy analysis.
There was developed an instrument for quantitative response evaluation of the Russian banking system to outside economic changes (including sanctions) and to Russian Bank money policy.
The new GDP decomposition was suggested. It allows to get more accurate fitting of the statistical data and does satisfy theoretical requirements, which were formulated in the framework of the report.
There were developed the consumers’ demand model, which combines advantages of both the QUAIDS model and the Working-Lesser model. The model uses individual price, which are endogenous and take in to consideration households’ heterogeneity.
The conditional heteroskedasticity model for financial market returns was elaborated. It presumes the asymmetry of positive and negative shocks on expected and realized returns. The model allows to analyze a non-linear influence of volatility on expected returns.
The analysis of FDI in Russian food firms revealed that there is no influence of foreign investor on firms’ performance. There was revealed the strong influence of sanction regime on firms with foreign investor performance. The estimates of both the unobserved demand and unsatisfied demand in Russia were calculated for 2011 – 2015 period.
The research of interregional migration in Russia showed that for different age strata different factors are impotent for migration propensity. The youth and aged strata are influenced by both economic and non-economic reasons. For youth, for example, getting of higher education is one of the strongest motive for migration.
The foreign partners were
Maurel Mathilde, Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne Maison des Sciences Economiques,http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/membres/m-chercheurs/
Sasha Sardavar, WPZ Research, Wien, http://www.wpz-research.com/das-team/