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  • Analysis and forecasting of development of the Russian economy in the conditions of post-crisis growth. Assessment of prospects and risks of acceleration of the country's socio-economic development under conditions of the instability of the external environment

Analysis and forecasting of development of the Russian economy in the conditions of post-crisis growth. Assessment of prospects and risks of acceleration of the country's socio-economic development under conditions of the instability of the external environment

Priority areas of development: economics
2018
Department: Laboratory of Analysis and Economic Processes Forecasting
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Объект исследований: российская экономика, ее секторальная (отраслевая) структура.

Goal of research

To develop a methodology for performing economic analysis and empirical economic research (including analysis and forecasting for specific spheres and industries of the Russian economy), aimed at supporting efforts to direct the Russian economy towards the path of intense innovative growth. This involves developing comprehensive scenarios of short, medium and long-term socio-economic forecasts, including those needed by federal agencies from the executive branch.

Empirical base of research

A wide range of sources was used for this work, including data from Russian statistics (Росстат), Ministry of Finance, Bank of Russia, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Federal Customs Service, international databases, mass media publications, official news outlets on decisions made and situations assessed. Also, for this work a database of statistical information, unique in its breadth of scope and containing five thousand dynamic rows, was employed. It was developed in-house by LAPEP employees. The following databases were also used: Cbonds-PRO RU (database containing information on the issue of Russian corporate bonds), Loans-PRO (database containing information on syndicated credit lines), BIR-Atlantic (БИР-Атлантик database with information on accounting statements for legal entities) and other data.

Results of research

1. The response of the most important macroeconomic indicators to shocks related to the change of the key rate by the Bank of Russia was evaluated. The dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks was constructed by using signs of the response functions of variables constraint method.

2. The technical efficiency of R&D expenditures in Russia was evaluated compared to other countries with the ICT sector. An analysis of the stochastic frontier showed that the ICT sector had the potential to increase the efficiency of the use of R&D expenditures. It was shown that the main loss of efficiency occurs at the stage of R&D implementation in business. Measures to improve the situation were suggested.

3. A method for determining the forms and phases of the conjuncture (business) cycles of economic time series (EVR) was proposed. It was shown that the exclusion of one cyclic component, for example, seasonal, led to a change of all possible options for the implementation of the EVR of cyclic components.

4. A study on the influence of the client imbalance and interest rate policy of the Central Bank on the formation of “holes” in the capital of Russian credit organizations in 2007–2017 was conducted. With the help of quantile regressions, differences in the mechanisms of already discovered “holes” formation were investigated, and Heckman’s selective models were used to analyze banks with problems of capital that were not yet discovered (hidden from the regulator). Calculations showed that customer imbalance matters: it increased the likelihood of bankruptcy and the size of the “hole” in capital under condition of bankruptcy. In addition, the interest rate policy of the Central Bank had a risk-stimulating effect: an increase in the key rate and an increase in its volatility correlated with higher values ​​of the “holes” in banks' capital. Finally, negative cross-effects of mutual amplification of client imbalance and strict interest rate policy of the Central Bank were revealed;

5. An attempt to improve the quality of predicting currency risks that the Russian economy may face has been made. For this purpose, the methodology of the signal approach was used, which is based on the search for indicators - leading indicators of the crisis.

6. New approaches to assessing the demographic situation and prospects for the implementation of the relevant national project were developed;

7. During this project, monitoring and analysis of the development of the Russian economy and its key areas (macroeconomics, real sector, budgetary sphere, monetary sphere, banking sphere, social sphere, foreign trade sphere, etc.) had been continued. It was shown that the Russian economy is in a state of protracted stagnation. Scenario forecasts of the development of the Russian economy for the short and medium term were developed.

8. The following conclusions on the development of the monetary sphere were drawn: an analysis of changes in the key proportions of Russia's balance of payments showed that these proportions reached relatively stable levels, around which moderate fluctuations are likely to occur in the medium term, which indicates that the Russian payment system has adapted to a new reality formed after the stress of 2014-2015 - shock fall in world prices for raw materials, the collapse of the ruble, the transition to foreign economic sanctions regime; the end of the monetary policy easing cycle led to earlier than expected fixation of Russia's position in one of the first places in terms of the real rate of monetary policy among countries with large and medium-sized economies; the acceleration of the dynamics of the credit market - first of all, in terms of retail lending was the trend of 2018. However, this acceleration had many imbalances, which, in turn, caused its instability and limited efficiency in terms of long-term economic growth; the behavior of the system of leading indicators of macrofinancial risks indicated the absence of significant threats of economic recession, as well as the proliferation of the systemic banking crisis. However, such system predicted the persistence of problematic situations in certain areas, in particular regarding the quality of the loan portfolio of banks.

9. A qualitative model of the Russian ICT Ecosystem (in matrix form), based on the analysis of the exchange of resources (material, current, monetary, capital, human) between the participants, was proposed. A quantitative model of the Russian ICT Ecosystem had been built. As part of the assessment of the long-term (up to 2030) potential for the development of the Russian ICT sector (in the target scenario – provided that the implementation of active government incentive policies and the formation of a modern system of institutions), the possibility of its accelerated development was shown. In total, digitalization was able to provide direct and indirect conditions for almost half of the GDP growth in the target scenario. The most important constraint for ICT development was the lack of capital in the entire system, including financial institutions.

10. The analysis of key trends in industrial production in 2018 showed that the situation remains ambiguous, positive processes was combined with a number of negative phenomena: in general, the trend of growth in industrial production was recorded, however, slow and concentrated mainly in the extractive industries; with an increase in profitability, the differentiation of production by this indicator increased, revenues was concentrated in the extraction and primary processing of raw materials, and not in the final manufacturing industries, where the position either did not improve or, having slightly improved, remained tense; investment activity of large and medium-sized companies had decreased, the supply of investment goods in the economy had not grown for a year and a half. From the unequivocally positive preliminary results of the year, the growth in the physical volumes of non-primary exports, as well as a decrease in the intensity of bankruptcies can be noticed.

11. During this project, a set of scenarios of medium-term (until 2021) forecasts for socio-economic development of Russia was created. An analysis of scenario conditions and medium-term forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development was carried out. An analysis of monetary policy was conducted on a regular basis.

12. A series of analytical notes “Thirteen Theses on the Economy” containing the main statements of the current situation in Russian economy were prepared. Monitoring that was issued monthly: current trends in Russian economy development, trends of Russian industry development, leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks. Monitoring of bankruptcies intensity, Monitoring and analysis of technological development of Russia and the world, Development trends of the largest economies in the world were published quarterly. A number of monthly analytical notes were published. The analysis of the most important economic policy measures, as well as scenarios and forecasts for the development of the Russian economy, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, were carried out.

13. 28 articles were published in both Russian and English language and 22 presentations were made on domestic and international conferences on the topic of the project in 2018.

Level of implementation,  recommendations on implementation or outcomes of the implementation of the results

The implementation of the investigation goals will help improve the quality of socio-economic analysis and forecasting. Also, the results of our investigation can serve as a foundation for further work on an analytical support when preparing to make major decisions and develop strategic documentation.

During this project, significant attention was paid to the preparation of notes and analytical materials, illustrated materials and forecasts that were passed on to executive and legislative branches of government (the President’s administration, government staff, the State Duma, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Finance, Russian Bank).

Publications:


Гнидченко А. А. Многополярное замедление и оживление мировой торговли // Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2018. Т. 22. № 4
Gnidchenko A. Measuring product-level export quality: Evidence from Asian motor vehicles sector / The Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW). Series "FIW Working Paper". 2018. No. 185.

See also

Keywords