The object of the research is to identify the monthly dynamics of the following indicators during 2018:
- industrial production as a whole, disaggregated into 29 activities and the production of 287 industrial commodities based on the classifications harmonized with international NACE 2/ CPA 2;
- non-industrial production (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, construction, carriage of goods by transport, wholesale and retail trade);
- exports (disaggregated into 20 commodity groups) and imports (disaggregated into 14 commodity groups); the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market for the period from 1998 to 2017 (disaggregated into 90 commodity groups).
The goals of the research are:
- to allow the prompt detection of changes in the monthly dynamics of production indicators, exports and imports, and the output of non-industrial production in the real sector of the economy (months of the beginnings and ends of growth, recession and stagnation periods) using calendar and seasonal adjustments;
- to promptly inform concerned persons regarding current trends in the dynamics of the indicators and the factors causing such changes.
- to assess the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market and factors influencing it.
Empirical base of research. Data on monthly production are provided by the Russian Federal Statistical Agency – Rosstat (http://www.gks.ru), in part of alcoholic beverage ‑ Federal Service for Alcohol Market Regulation of (http://www.fedstat.ru). Data on annual exports and imports are provided in the publications of Russian Federal Customs Service “Foreign trade customs statistics of the Russian Federation”.
Results of research. The results of monthly monitoring are presented in the following reports:
- “Indices of industrial production intensity”;
- “Indices of non-industrial production intensity”;
- “Monthly dynamics of exports and imports of goods”.
These reports are regularly refreshed and can be found on the web-site NRU HSE (http://www.dcenter.hse.ru) in the section "Expertise", subsection "Monitoring" (in Russian) and also on the web-site of the Institute “Center for Development” (http://www.dcenter.ru) in the section “Dynamics of Production and Foreign trade”.
The dynamics of industrial production for the period from January to October 2018 was characterized by a gradual decline in the rate of growth (from 0.9% compared with the previous year in January to 0.1% in September and 0.2% in October). In the first months of the year, relatively high growth rates were due to increased demand for fuel and energy resources, but then the slowdown of the dynamics was determined by demand constraints. During the first 10 months of 2018 (in October, compared with December of the previous year), the index of intensity of industrial production increased by 2.8% in general, with the outpacing growth in the intensity of mining (by 5.2%) as compared to the increase in the intensity of manufacturing industry (by 2.5%). The most significant contribution to the increase in the intensity of industrial production was made by: the extraction of crude oil and natural gas; manufacture of basic metals; manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment.
The composite index of the intensity of production of goods and services in the basic types of economic activity in September 2018 compared with December of the previous year increased by 2.8%. To a significant extent, this increase was provided by manufacturing, wholesale trade (mainly due to the intensification of exports) and mining. The decline took place in the electricity, gas, and steam due to the improvement of the situation with energy saving in production and at home.
During January-September 2018, the recovery of growth in the indicators of Russia's foreign trade turnover continued: exports increased from month to month, the trend in import volumes showed a tendency to increase after a systematic reduction from March to August. In the first nine months of 2018 (in September, compared with December of the previous year), exports increased by 19.6%, imports decreased by 5.5%, the trade surplus increased by 58.7%. The growth of exports was mainly due to the increase in world prices for fuel and energy resources. At the same time, exports of machinery, equipment and vehicles decreased by 6.2%. Import growth continues to be constrained by the stagnation in demand in domestic markets for consumer and investment goods. The foreign trade turnover was increased by 10.1% as a whole; the foreign trade turnover with the countries of the European Union was increased by 4.5%. Most of all, the volumes of mutual trade between Russia and the Republic of Korea and Japan increased. At the same time, trade across Russia, France and Great Britain decreased the most significantly.
In the period from 2013 to 2017, the indicator of competitiveness of Russian goods in foreign markets decreased by 2.9 percentage points due to such product groups as: chemical products; mineral products; skins; furs and products from them. At the same time, indicators of competitiveness for food products and agricultural raw materials have significantly increased due to the effect of import substitution, as well as for machinery, equipment and vehicles.