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Development of quantitative approaches for global technology trend analysis and identification

Priority areas of development: economics
2018
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

The purpose of this research project is to establish a complex system for global technology trends monitoring, which might have considerable impact on social-economic development of the whole world in the forecasted long-term period. The integration of quantitative and qualitative methods, which range from relatively new bibliometrics, scientometrics and technology mining to other traditional foresight methods, in particular horizon scanning, scenarios building, the Delphi survey and expert panels, contributes a lot to the creation and regular update of the information base that contains numerous global technology trends. Regarding data sources, large academic, scientific and media databases are analyzed for data mining procedures. In order to validate the results obtained from the previous phase, expert consultations, particularly surveys and workshops, are conducted.

The aim of the study in 2018 is the improvement of the methodological approaches to global technology trends identification on the basis of the development of the intelligent analysis of big data techniques, updating the results of global technology trends monitoring in key scientific and technological areas in 2017, expansion of newsletters (trendletters) by conducting additional analysis of major companies, startups and risks, and publication (in electronic form) of an analytical report based on the recent trendletters issued in 2016-2018.

Information base of the study contains analytical reports of international and national organizations, research projects of foreign foresight centers, market forecasts provided by large companies, information from consulting agencies, Russian foresights for R&D in various industries, data from scientific publications and patents, dissertations and other sources.

The following results were obtained during research:

  • improved methodology for the quantitative analysis of technological trends based on the construction of vector representations of scientific and technical documents and terms which address issues connected with the search and validation of technological trends at the earliest stages;
  • updated results of the global technological trends monitoring conducted in 2017 for the priority areas of scientific and technological development (advanced production technologies, environmental management, energy and others);
  • prepared and published series of regular newsletters (trendletters) about the global and Russian tendencies of technological development for each considered area of science and technology;
  • analyzed global technology trends for a number of key economic sectors for the Russian Federation (metallurgy, mechanical engineering, etc.) and prepared, on its basis, several special (expanded) issues of trendletters, which include the analysis of major companies and startups, as well as risks associated with the development of technological trends.

This research provides a broad understanding of the diversity of trends in a number of scientific and technological fields along with the extent of their impact on the future socio-economic development of the world in general and the country in particular, which may be of vital importance for various stakeholders. The results of this study can be used in the decision-making and setting the priorities processes by both federal government bodies of the Russian Federation (working out strategies for scientific and technological development, long-term industry forecasts, etc.) and various private companies as well as universities and research organizations.

Publications:


Milshina Y., Vishnevskiy K. Potentials of collaborative foresight for SMEs // Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 2018. Vol. 30. No. 6. P. 701-717. doi
Saritas O., Meissner D., Sokolov A. A Transition Management Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) // Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 2019. Vol. 10. No. 3. P. 1183-1203. doi
Saritas O., Meissner D., Sokolov A. A Transition Management Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) // Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 2018. P. 1-21. doi
Крупенский Н. А., Мильшина Ю. В., Вишневский К. О. Цифровая логика новой логистики // BRICS Business Magazine Russian Edition. 2018. № 2 (20) . С. 124-127.
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E., Loginova I. V. Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 82.