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The Monitoring of the Monthly Dynamics of Goods and Services in the Real Sector of the Economy and Foreign Trade of Goods

Priority areas of development: economics
2017
Department: Department for Analysis of Real Economy Sector Industries and Foreign Trade

The object of the research is to identify the monthly dynamics of the following indicators during 2017:

  • industrial production as a whole, disaggregated into 29 activities and the production of 278 industrial commodities(from October - 287 industrial commodities) based on the classifications harmonized with international NACE 2/ CPA 2;
  • non-industrial production (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, construction, carriage of goods by transport, wholesale and retail trade) and personal consumption expenditures;
  • exports (disaggregated into 19 commodity groups) and imports (disaggregated into 14 commodity groups); the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market for the period from 1998 to 2016 (disaggregated into 90 commodity groups).

The goals of the research are

  • to allow the prompt detection of changes in the monthly dynamics of production indicators, exports and imports, and the output of non-industrial production in the real sector of the economy (months of the beginnings and ends of growth, recession and stagnation periods) using calendar and seasonal adjustments.
  • to assess the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market and factors influencing it.

Empirical base of research. Data on monthly production, exports and imports are provided by the Russian Federal Statistical Agency – Rosstat (http://www.gks.ru), in part of alcoholic beverage ‑ Federal Service for Alcohol Market Regulation of (http://www.fedstat.ru). Data on annual exports and imports are provided in the publications of Russian Federal Customs Service “Foreign trade customs statistics of the Russian Federation”.

Results of research. The results of monthly monitoring are presented in the following reports:

“Indices of industrial production intensity”;

“Indices of non-industrial production intensity”;

“Monthly dynamics of exports and imports of goods”.

These reports are regularly refreshed and can be found on the web-site of the Institute “Center for Development” (http://www.dcenter.ru) in the section “Dynamics of Production and Foreign trade” and also on the web-site of NRU HSE (http://www.dcenter.hse.ru) (in Russian).

The purpose of the report is to promptly inform concerned persons about the current trends in the dynamics of the indicators and the factors causing such changes.

There are two stages in the dynamics of industrial production for the period from November 2016 to October 2017. The first stage (from November 2016 to May 2017) is characterized by a sluggish growth after recession. The second stage (from June to October 2017) is characterized by the progressive decline due to the increasingly noticeable impact of demand constraints. During the first 10 months of 2017 (in October, compared with December of the previous year) the index of industrial production intensity as a whole increased by only 0.1% and in manufacturing industries ‑ by 1.8%. Since beginning of 2017 production intensity has increased in 17 out of 29 economic activities, and 12 activities have declined. The intensity of economic activities increased most (over 10%) in machine building (manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; manufacture of railway rolling stock; manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.); manufacture of textiles, manufacture of wearing apparel; manufacture of jewellery, bijouterie and related articles.

The composite index of the intensity of the output of goods and services in non-industrial activities in September 2017 in comparison with December of the previous year increased by 2.4%; excluding agriculture this index increased by 0.8% (the increase of the intensity of agricultural production during the period was a 20.2% thanks to a rich harvest and the import substitution effect). The retail trade turnover and personal consumption expenditures increased by 5.2 and 4% respectively. The most noticeable decrease was in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and construction (due to a decrease in investment activity).

In the monthly dynamics of seasonally adjusted indicators of foreign trade (exports, imports, foreign trade turnover), from October 2016 to September 2017, there was a growth tendency. For the first 9 months of 2017, seasonally adjusted export growth rate was 10.8%. However, the long-term consequences of the recession are still very noticeable: in September 2017 compared to April 2014 exports fell by 31.5%. The main reason was the fall in prices on the world energy market. For the period from December 2016 to September 2017 imports increased by 14.1%. Overall, from January 2014 to September 2017 imports decreased by 28.1%, to a great extent due to falling imports of machines, equipment and vehicles. It was the result of the decrease in investment activity and the fall in consumer demand (primarily for cars). During the period under review, foreign trade turnover as a whole increased by 12.1%, foreign trade turnover with the countries of the European Union - by 2.8% (however, lagging behind the level of December 2013 was 29.9% and 44% respectively). For the first nine months of 2017, the trade across Russia, Turkey, the Republic of Korea, and the Great Britain had grown the most in numerical terms. At the same time, trade across Russia, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland had declined.

In 2013-2016 the competitiveness indicator decreased by 3.1%. The increase in 2016 compared to 2013 was primarily due to such commodity groups as machines, equipment and vehicles; foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials (except textiles); metals and products from them. The indicator of competitiveness in the commodity group "Mineral products" decreased most significantly.