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Methodological and information foundation of macro-structural modeling of the Russian economy

2006
Department: Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy

The strategic objectives of this research, conducted by the Laboratory of Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy, is the development and implementation of a macro-structural model of the Russian Economy, and conducting model-based fundamental and applied research. An important characteristic of the integral modal is that it has to be in the form of a system of model calculations adaptable to a specific environment and tasks that can be applied to an analysis of the possible repercussions of important decisions in economic policy that will be implemented in the medium term.

This project involved the following tasks:

  • Drawing up an analytic overview of the aims, methods of model-building and experience of using national economies models of the chosen class,
  • Choosing the principal scheme of the Russian economic model (specified later) in the medium-term,
  • Developing the key blocks of the model (cross-sectoral model of sector interaction, models of fixed asset dynamics broken down into economy and industry sectors, labor market models, banking sector models, household consumption models etc).

This research resulted in the following general conclusions. The methodological base of the macro-structural modeling of the Russian economy had to be developed through the elaboration of theoretical problems and empirical solutions that are organically interrelated.

To adequately reflect these processes in the modern Russian economy, it is important to take into account the structure of the main economic indicators. As agent intergeneity is simpler and better simulated at the micro-level, one of the main tasks is building interchange blocks of the structural macro model that ensure integration of structural changes into macro variables.

As part of the research, we have determined an insufficient theoretical and practical examination of the issues reflecting the characteristics of the economic policy and the effective mechanism of its implementation in the macro-structural model as well as their informative description. Overcoming these difficulties is possible in the process of constructive interaction with experts from respective departments of the Ministry of Economy and Trade of the Russian Federation.

The functional aspects of elaboration of the model include developing techniques that simultaneously employ ideas of the general equilibrium approach to describing the actual and desirable states of the economic system as well as the modeling tools of the transitional processes. The task-setting in academic publications is mostly of a qualitative nature and, at the moment, has not been transformed into a way to develop and verify respective models.

For several problem blocks of the model, the preliminary analysis demonstrated the lack of available and systematized data that can be changed into a usable form in macro-structural modeling. For instance, those concerning foreign trade, the state of housing and public utilities, mineral and other natural resources, environmental limitations and transport structure.