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  • Taking into account the structure evolution of Russian industries under modelling their dynamics » to the final report (Terms of reference 12)

Taking into account the structure evolution of Russian industries under modelling their dynamics » to the final report (Terms of reference 12)

Priority areas of development: economics
2019
Department: Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy
The project has been carried out as part of the HSE Program of Fundamental Studies.

Objects of research are Russian economy as a whole and its specific sectors.

The aim of the research is development of new models in the framework of the system of models elaborated for analysis and forecasting of Russian economy and its separate sectors by the staff of the laboratory.  These new models should correspond to changing economic environment of Russia. The models should be ready for both fundamental and applied researches running by researchers, students and PhD-students of NRU HSE.

Methodology of research combines econometric, countable general equilibrium and analytical approaches to modelling of contemporary economic processes of Russian economy.

Some significant improvements were made during the current year. Some sectorial models of Russian economy have been modified. At the same time different approaches to merging of the separate sectors’ models into the whole model were investigated. Financial sanctions and recession of Russian economy forced to consider new economic reality and to check robustness of the previously developed models under new circumstances. There were developed some solutions to arisen problems including the following. Modification of the banking sector for improvement of forecast power of the dynamic model; developing of the models for Current Payment Account and Budget Income Inflows; the model for risk evaluation at Russian financial market; modelling of interregional migration in Russia specific based on new official statistics.

The main research results are the following.

There was showed possibility to use the developed CGE model’s approach to get full analytical description of the equilibrium without linearization and to merge the block-models into the general one.  

The analysis of FDI revealed that foreign sanctions have long-term negative influence on Russian food firms, and this influence is much stronger for pure domestic enterprises in comparison with firms with foreign investors.

There was developed QUAIDS model with endogenous prices in order to reveal the consequences of countersanctions regimes on Russian consumers’ behavior. The results demonstrate a structural break in elasticity beginning from year 2014. Application of the developed model to the Moscow-city households shows that they had to pay more for food consumption without correspondent growth in income.

The developed model of interregional migration in Russia showed that changing of statistical methodology in migration data’ collection modifies the main motives for migration. Instead of regional economic factors regional socio-infrastructure indicators (such that autobahn density, Internet network accessibility, culture etc.) play the principal role. Especially – for graduates.

The foreign partners were

Maurel Mathilde, Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
Maison des Sciences Economiques,http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/membres/m-chercheurs/

Sasha Sardavar, WPZ Research, Wien, http://www.wpz-research.com/das-team/

Publications:


Vakulenko E., Mkrtchyan N. V. Factors of Interregional Migration in Russia Disaggregated by Age // Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. 2020. Vol. 13. P. 609-630. doi
Stankevich I., Alexei Ujegov, Vasilyev S. Estimation of Multiproduct Models in Economics on the Example of Production Sector of Russian Economy, in: Optimization and Applications 9th International Conference, OPTIMA 2018, Petrovac, Montenegro, October 1–5, 2018, Revised Selected Papers / Ed. by M. Jaćimović, M. Khachay, Y. Kochetov, V. Malkova, Ю. Г. Евтушенко, M. Posypkin. Springer, 2019. doi P. 470-481. doi
Pilnik N., Radionov S., Yazykov A. The model of the Russian banking system with indicators nominated in rubles and in foreign currency, in: Optimization and Applications 9th International Conference, OPTIMA 2018, Petrovac, Montenegro, October 1–5, 2018, Revised Selected Papers / Ed. by M. Jaćimović, M. Khachay, Y. Kochetov, V. Malkova, Ю. Г. Евтушенко, M. Posypkin. Springer, 2019. doi P. 427-438. doi