The object of the research
Is to identify the monthly dynamics of the following indicators during 2019:
industrial production as a whole, disaggregated into 29 activities and the production of 287 industrial commodities, based on the classifications harmonized with international NACE 2/ CPA 2;
non-industrial production (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, construction, carriage of goods by transport, wholesale and retail trade);
exports (disaggregated into 20 commodity groups) and imports (disaggregated into 14 commodity groups); the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market for the period from 1998 to 2019 (disaggregated into 90 commodity groups).
The goals of the research are:
to allow the prompt detection of changes in the monthly dynamics of production indicators, exports and imports, and the output of non-industrial production in the real sector of the economy (months of the beginnings and ends of growth, recession and stagnation periods) using calendar and seasonal adjustments;
to promptly inform concerned persons regarding current trends in the dynamics of the indicators and the factors causing such changes.
to assess the annual dynamics of the competitiveness of Russian commodities in the global market and factors influencing it.
The methods used
Statistical methods for analyzing time series and statistical groupings. Methods and models of seasonal and calendar smoothing for time series.
Empirical base of research
Data on monthly production are provided by the Russian Federal Statistical Agency – Rosstat (http://www.gks.ru), in part of alcoholic beverage ‑ Federal Service for Alcohol Market Regulation of (http://www.fedstat.ru). Data on annual exports and imports are provided in the publications of Russian Federal Customs Service “Foreign trade customs statistics of the Russian Federation”.
Results of the research
The results of monthly monitoring are presented in the following reports:
“Indices of industrial production intensity”;
“Indices of non-industrial production intensity”;
“Monthly dynamics of exports and imports of goods”.
These reports are regularly updated and can be found on the web-site of NRU HSE (http://www.dcenter.hse.ru) in the section "Expertise", subsection "Monitoring" (in Russian) and also on the web-site of the Institute “Center for Development” (http://www.dcenter.ru) in the section “Dynamics of Production and Foreign trade”.
The dynamics of industrial production for the period from January to September 2019 was determined by the stagnation of domestic demand in the consumer and investment goods markets: from January to March there was a moderate decrease, which in the period from April to August gave way to an equally moderate growth, which had stagnated in September. For the 9 months of 2019 (in September compared with December of the previous year), the industrial production intensity index as a whole increased by 0.7%, with the outstripping growth in the intensity of manufacturing industries (by 1.5%) compared with an increase in the intensity of mining (by 0.6%). The most significant contribution to the growth in industrial production intensity for the 9 months of 2019 was made by: food production; production of chemical products and chemicals; production of natural gas and gas condensate.
The composite index of the intensity of production of goods and services in the basic types of economic activity in September 2018 compared with December of the previous year increased by 3.8%. To a significant extent, this increase was ensured by wholesale trade, construction, agriculture and transportation of goods by transport, a continuous systematic increase in the intensity of output of which took place over the interval from 5 to 9 of the last reporting months. The total income of the population in comparable prices in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 increased by 3%. However, relative to the fourth quarter of 2013, the total income of the population in the third quarter of 2019 decreased by 4.4%. Incomes from business activity have decreased to the most significant degree (their recipients are mainly individual entrepreneurs and self-employed).
After the decline during November 2018 - June 2019, the growth of Russia's foreign trade and exports started growing, mainly due to an increase in the physical volume of deliveries abroad of crude oil, as well as wheat and meslin due to the rich harvest of the current year. For the eight months of 2019 (August relative to December of the previous year), foreign trade turnover decreased by 4.2%, exports increased by 7.3%, imports increased by 1.7%, and the trade surplus decreased by 17.3%. The decline in exports was mainly due to the fall in world oil prices (by 25.1% from November 2018 to August 2019). Import growth continues to be constrained by the absence of an increase in demand in the domestic markets of consumer and investment goods. For the period under review the foreign trade turnover with the countries of the European Union decreased by 6.9%. The volumes of mutual trade between Russia and Turkey increased most of all, the volumes of trade between Russia and the Republic of Korea decreased most significantly. For the first eight months of 2019, the export of high-tech products increased by 23.9%, and its share in the total export volume - up to 13.3%. In the same period, imports of high-tech products (which account for about 2/3 of the total import volume in the commodity structure) decreased by 0.3%.
In the period from 2013 to 2018, the indicator of competitiveness of Russian goods in foreign markets increased by 5.5 percentage points due to the predominance of import substitution effects. Indicators of competitiveness have increased quite markedly for: food products and agricultural raw materials, machinery, equipment and vehicles; metals and products from them.